Impact of Microcredit in the Philippines

Last registered on May 24, 2017

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Impact of Microcredit in the Philippines
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0000165
Initial registration date
March 13, 2014
Last updated
May 24, 2017, 11:47 PM EDT

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
Northwestern University

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
University of Illinois at Urbana Champaign
PI Affiliation
Dartmouth College

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2010-06-01
End date
2015-03-31
Secondary IDs
Abstract
This study is a long-term evaluation of the impact of microcredit in the Philippines. In partnership with two microcredit lenders, we introduced a credit scoring system that evaluates the credit worthiness of credit applicants. First-time borrowers who are marginally credit worthy are subject to a random credit decision where most receive an offer of credit but some are randomly rejected. By comparing those who were randomly approved for credit against those who were randomly denied, we will be able to measure the impact of access to microcredit.

This study is a follow-up to Karlan and Zinman (2010).
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Karlan, Dean, Adam Osman and Jonathan Zinman. 2017. "Impact of Microcredit in the Philippines." AEA RCT Registry. May 24. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.165-3.0
Former Citation
Karlan, Dean et al. 2017. "Impact of Microcredit in the Philippines." AEA RCT Registry. May 24. https://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/165/history/17996
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2010-06-01
Intervention End Date
2012-12-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Consumption, business investment, household income, response to shocks, use of formal insurance
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We used credit scoring software designed in consultation with two microlenders in the Philippines to identify marginally creditworthy loan applicants. Some applicants receive a randomized offer of access to credit while others do not and we will compare these two groups to obtain an unbiased measure of the impact of access to microcredit. More details on the experimental design can be found in Karlan, Osman and Zinman (2013), "Follow the Money: Methods for Identifying Consumption and Investment Responses to a Liquidity Shock."
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization done by computer at time of loan application
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
4,032 loan applicants
Sample size: planned number of observations
4,032 loan applicants
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
417 applicants in control group, 3,615 in treatment group
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Yale University FAS Human Subjects Committee
IRB Approval Date
2009-11-17
IRB Approval Number
0510000752

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
Yes
Intervention Completion Date
December 31, 2012, 12:00 +00:00
Data Collection Complete
Yes
Data Collection Completion Date
December 31, 2012, 12:00 +00:00
Final Sample Size: Number of Clusters (Unit of Randomization)
Was attrition correlated with treatment status?
No
Final Sample Size: Total Number of Observations
1,601 applicants
Final Sample Size (or Number of Clusters) by Treatment Arms
1,272 accepted applicants served as the treatment and 329 rejected applicants served as the comparison
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Abstract
Measuring the impacts of liquidity shocks on spending is difficult methodologically but important for theory, practice, and policy. We compare three approaches for tackling this question: directly asking borrowers how they spend proceeds from a loan (direct elicitation); asking borrowers using a list randomization technique (indirect elicitation) that allows them to answer discretely in cases where loan uses are at odds with lender policies or social norms; and, a counterfactual analysis in which we compare household and enterprise cash outflows for those in a treatment group, randomly assigned to receive credit, to a control group. The counterfactual analysis yields an estimate that about 100% of loan-financed spending is on business inventory. For the direct and indirect elicitations, we find evidence of both strategic misreporting and “following the cash”: borrowers likely report what they physically did with cash proceeds, rather than counterfactual spending.
Citation
Karlan, Dean, Adam Osman, and Jonathan Zinman. 2016. "Follow the money not the cash: Comparing methods for identifying consumption and investment responses to a liquidity shock." Journal of Development Economics 121: 11-23.

Reports & Other Materials