A Low-Cost Signal: Evidence on Skill Certification and Migrant Labor Market Integration

Last registered on November 25, 2025

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
A Low-Cost Signal: Evidence on Skill Certification and Migrant Labor Market Integration
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0017294
Initial registration date
November 21, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
November 25, 2025, 7:56 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Affiliation
Inter-American Development Bank

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
Inter-American Development Bank
PI Affiliation
Inter-American Development Bank
PI Affiliation
IÉSEG School of management
PI Affiliation
Inter-American Development Bank

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-11-24
End date
2027-02-28
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Labor markets in low- and middle-income countries face significant information frictions that weaken job matching. These frictions are particularly acute for migrants because employers often lack reliable signals of their skills, receive no references that help verify experience, and struggle to interpret foreign education credentials. Competency-based skill certification offers a direct way to address these barriers by providing verifiable information on workers’ abilities and encouraging firms to consider candidates they might otherwise overlook. We study Talentos que Impulsan (TQI), a certification program implemented with Colombia’s National Learning Service (SENA) that assesses and validates workers’ skills. Participation in the program is randomly assigned, allocating slots to migrants and locals across five major cities. Leveraging this design, we estimate certification's effects on labor market outcomes and mental well-being. Because this intervention reduces per-participant costs by more than half relative to incentive-based certification models in the same context, it provides a unique opportunity to evaluate a highly scalable alternative. The absence of financial incentives further enables us to isolate the returns to pure signaling, separate from impacts driven by monetary support. Our findings will contribute evidence on the role of low-cost certification in improving labor-market signaling, advancing migrant labor-market integration, and informing the design of scalable employment policies in resource-constrained settings.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Busso, Matias et al. 2025. "A Low-Cost Signal: Evidence on Skill Certification and Migrant Labor Market Integration." AEA RCT Registry. November 25. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.17294-1.0
Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2025-12-01
Intervention End Date
2025-12-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The primary outcomes focus on labor market integration. We will measure:

1) Employment
- Extensive margin: employment status
- Intensive margin: hours worked

2) Earnings
- Monthly wages / labor income
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary outcomes will be collected conditional on response rates observed during the pilot follow-up. If questionnaire length risks increasing attrition, only primary outcomes will be retained.

1) Labor Market Outcomes

- Probability of pursuing additional education or training after the program
- Probability of formal employment
- Firm size (among employed individuals)
- Economic sector of the employer
- Occupational category (support staff, administrative, operator, etc.)
- Desire to switch jobs (conditional on being employed)
- Job satisfaction
- Duration of unemployment spells (for unemployed respondents)
- Reservation wage (minimum acceptable salary to switch jobs)
- Maximum expected salary
- Actual use of the certification signal in job-search activities

2) Mental Health
-Symptoms of anxiety and depression (PHQ-9)
-Stress levels
-Self-efficacy and perceived ability to achieve goals

3) Measures of Poverty / Economic Hardship
-Probability of skipping meals due to lack of economic resources

4) Perceptions of the Program
-Willingness to pay for skill certification
-Willingness to participate in the program without subsidies
-Perceived impact of subsidies on program attractiveness
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Talentos que Impulsan (TQI) is a competency-based skill certification program implemented by Colombia’s National Learning Service (SENA) in collaboration with the Ministry of Labor. The program aims to certify approximately one thousand Colombian and migrant workers and provides guidance on how to register for and use the public employment services platform. TQI offers no monetary incentives and follows SENA’s standard assessment model, in which trained evaluators verify whether participants meet occupational competency standards.

The program targets vulnerable workers. Applicants must meet at least one criterion of vulnerability, and at least 30 percent of certification slots are reserved for migrants with regular legal status. Applicants enroll online, undergo eligibility screening, and then enter a randomized selection process when demand exceeds available slots. Randomization is stratified by nationality and competency area. Individuals selected for certification form the treatment group, and eligible non-selected applicants form the control group.

TQI certifies skills in five areas: health services, food processing, security, logistics, and sales. The evaluation covers five cities: Bogotá, Barranquilla, Cali, Popayán, and Cúcuta. The intervention will occur in two waves: December 2025–January 2026 and February–March 2026. Certified participants receive an official SENA credential; those who do not pass may enroll in a gap-closure training program.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization was performed by an algorithm that stratified by competence level, migrant status.
Randomization Unit
Randomization into the program was performed at the individual level. The randomization was stratified at the competence level and migrant status.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
We do not have a cluster-adjusted randomization.
Sample size: planned number of observations
This study includes a total of 2,200 individuals. Out of these, half will be randomly selected to receive the treatment (i.e., the skills evaluations and, if aproved, the certifications). The remaining half will be assigned to the control group. The sample is stratified by migrant status and at least 30% of the beneficiaries selected into treatment will be migrants.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
The randomization is performed at the individual level. This means that the total sample size is equivalent to 2,200 individuals, where at least 40% of the sample will be treated.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Based on our experimental design, the minimum detectable effect (MDE) is 0.14 standard deviations for the local sample and 0.26 for the migrant sample. Under an anticipated 10 percent attrition rate, the MDEs increase to 0.15 and 0.27 standard deviations, respectively. For the pooled sample, we are able to detect effects of at least 0.123 standard deviations.
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Universidad del Rosario
IRB Approval Date
2025-05-12
IRB Approval Number
DVO005 1015 - CS580