Intensive job matching of the long-term unemployed. Evidence from a randomized controlled trail

Last registered on April 13, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Intensive job matching of the long-term unemployed. Evidence from a randomized controlled trail
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0017733
Initial registration date
April 08, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
April 13, 2026, 9:20 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Sweden
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Magnus Rödin
Affiliation
Swedish Public Employment Service
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Petter Helgesson
PI Affiliation
Swedish Public Employment Service
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PI Name
Simona Tudor
PI Affiliation
Swedish Public Employment Service
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PI Name
Anders Stenberg
PI Affiliation
Stockholm University
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Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2025-12-01
End date
2029-09-30
Keywords
Labor
Additional Keywords
job search assistance, job matching, long-term unemployed, randomized experiment
JEL code(s)
J68, J64, C93
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
One of the major challenges in the Swedish labour market today is the growing number of job seekers with weak labour market attachment. In 2010, approximately half of the job seekers registered with the Swedish Public Employment Service were assessed as belonging to this group; today, the corresponding figure is close to 75 percent. This development highlights the importance of identifying and implementing efficient measures for those who have become stuck in unemployment and social exclusion. Previous research has shown that interventions with intensified job search assistance can be an efficient way to increase the share of job seekers who find employment, also for groups with weak competitiveness. In this study, we examine the effects of a job-search assistance intervention with a strong focus on job matching, that has recently been introduced at the Swedish Public Employment Service. The intensified job matching intervention follows three steps: (1) a broad mapping of job seekers formal and informal qualifications, (2) recruitment of vacancies and employers with demand for such qualifications, and (3) job matching between job seekers and employers. To qualify for the intervention, job seekers must have been unemployed for at least twelve months, but priority in intake is given to job seekers who have been unemployed for more than 24 months. In the short term, the number of places in the intervention is limited, while the target group is very large. This created an opportunity to implement a randomized trial in which the offer to participate in the intervention is randomly assigned among all job seekers in the target group who are assessed as having the prerequisites to benefit from the intervention. The primary outcomes to be studied are transitions to unsubsidized and subsidized employment, as well as to regular education. The intervention is offered nationwide and was launched in early 2024, while the randomized trial began on 1 December 2025 and is expected to be completed by the summer of 2026.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Helgesson, Petter et al. 2026. "Intensive job matching of the long-term unemployed. Evidence from a randomized controlled trail." AEA RCT Registry. April 13. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.17733-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We study an intensified job-search assistance intervention with a strong focus on job matching. The intervention follows three steps: (1) a broad mapping of job seekers formal and informal qualifications, (2) recruitment of vacancies and employers with demand for such qualifications, and (3) job matching between job seekers and employers. Participation in the intervention can last up to twelve months.
Intervention Start Date
2025-12-01
Intervention End Date
2027-09-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Outcomes will be constructed using administrative data from the Swedish Public
Employment Service (short term analysis) and Statistics Sweden (long term analysis). The primary outcomes will mainly be labor market outcomes, for example exits from unemployment to employment or education, cumulative labor earnings, being employed X months after date of randomization etc. The primary and secondary outcomes will be defined in detail in the analysis plan.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Job seekers can enter the study in two ways. The first is through a regular meeting with a caseworker at the Swedish Public Employment Service, during which the caseworker identifies that the job seeker belong to the target group and has a need for, and the prerequisites to benefit from, the intervention. The caseworker then indicate this need using a specific code in the PES administrative system. The second alternative is that caseworkers actively search for potential participants in the administrative systems. Job seekers who, based on the information available in the administrative records, are assessed by the caseworker as having a need for, and the prerequisites to participate in the intervention, are indicated with the same code in the PES system. All job seekers flagged with this code have an equal chance of being offered participation in the intervention, which is determined through a randomization conducted centrally by the PES analysis department. Job seekers who are randomized to be offered participation are assigned a new code and are subsequently contacted by caseworkers who work specifically with the intervention. Job seekers who are randomized to not be offered the intervention continue to receive the treatment as usual at the Swedish Public Employment Service.

To facilitate the identification process for caseworkers, all job seekers who meet the criteria for belonging to the target group of the intervention are flagged with codes in the PES administrative system. One code indicates that the individual has been unemployed for more than twelve months, while the other indicates unemployment exceeding 24 months. This is to ensure that caseworkers, when necessary, have the ability to prioritize job seekers who are further from the labor market. Caseworkers can therefore spend less time determining whether a job seeker belongs to the target group, but can instead focus on assessing whether the job seeker has a need to participate in the intervention.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization done by a computer (administered by the analysis department). Randomization is conducted weekly starting in December 2025 and will continue to at least June 2026.
Randomization Unit
Job seeker
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
We use no clusters
Sample size: planned number of observations
Depending on the inflow of job-seekers in the target group identified to benefit from the intervention, we plan for 25 000 job seekers to participate in the study.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
The plan is to randomize around 50 percent to the job matching intervention. Based on an inflow of 25 000 participants, the number of individuals in the treatment group will be around 12500 job seekers. As such, the control group taking part of treatment as usual will be around
12500 job seekers.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan