Do investors properly account for inflation, causal estimates?

Last registered on April 01, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Do investors properly account for inflation, causal estimates?
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0018239
Initial registration date
March 29, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
April 01, 2026, 10:31 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Jeffrey Carpenter
Affiliation
Middlebury College
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Henry Carpenter
PI Affiliation
Middlebury College
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PI Name
Peter Hans Matthews
PI Affiliation
Middlebury College
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Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2026-03-06
End date
2026-09-01
Keywords
Behavior, Finance & Microfinance
Additional Keywords
Inflation expectations, Finance, Asset pricing, Portfolio allocation, Experiment, Information Provision
JEL code(s)
C9, E31, G12
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Using an experiment, we intend to study the causal effects of providing professional forecaster estimates of inflation on incentivized investor behavior (i.e., asset pricing and portfolio allocation).
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Carpenter, Henry, Jeffrey Carpenter and Peter Hans Matthews. 2026. "Do investors properly account for inflation, causal estimates?." AEA RCT Registry. April 01. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.18239-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Using an experiment, we intend to study the causal effects of providing professional forecaster estimates of inflation on incentivized investor behavior (i.e., asset pricing and portfolio allocation).
Intervention Start Date
2026-03-23
Intervention End Date
2026-04-10

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Participant bids for a nominal 1-year Treasury bill and a 1-year Treasury TIPS bill. Participant allocations of $100 to four assets: Cash, Nominal bills, TIPS bills and a stock.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The only difference between control and treatment is that treated participants learn the March 6, 2026 mean core inflation prediction published by the Survey of Professional Forecasters.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Done by the computer (Qualtrics)
Randomization Unit
The participant
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
not clustered
Sample size: planned number of observations
1200 (or as many as funding permits)
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
600 in treatment and control
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
0.15 sd
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Middlebury College IRB
IRB Approval Date
2026-03-24
IRB Approval Number
Protocol 580
Analysis Plan

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