Proactive Financial Aid Guarantees

Last registered on April 23, 2026

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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title

Proactive Financial Aid Guarantees

RCT ID

AEARCTR-0018333

Initial registration date

April 14, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published

April 23, 2026, 9:20 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name

Richard Murphy

Affiliation

University of Texas at Austin

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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name

Matt Giani

PI Affiliation

University of Texas at Austin

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PI Name

Stella Flores

PI Affiliation

Boston College

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PI Name

Jori Barash

PI Affiliation

University of Oregon

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Additional Trial Information

Status

In development

Start date

2026-04-28

End date

2028-05-29

Keywords

Education

Additional Keywords

Financial aid; informational intervention; college enrollment; higher education; Texas; Guarantees

JEL code(s)

I22, I23, I24, C93

Secondary IDs

Prior work

This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.

Abstract

This study evaluates whether early proactive guarantees of financial aid influence students’ decisions to apply, enroll, and matriculate at the University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA). In partnership with UTSA and the San Antonio Independent School District (SAISD), the research team will conduct a randomized controlled trial to measure the causal impact of sending outreach materials to 11th-grade students that guarantee a novel combination of free tuition and admission.

The study sample consists of around 580 SAISD high school students who are eligible for direct admission (from being in the top 25% of their cohort), and are likely eligible for free tuition based on eligibility for free or reduced-price lunch. Typically, financial aid is awarded around a year later, after admission, based on family income information from the FAFSA. Half of the students will be unconditionally randomly assigned to receive a letter (via mail and email) informing them of the financial aid guarantee. The other half will receive no additional communication beyond UTSA’s standard outreach informing the students that they are eligible for direct admission.

The experiment will estimate the intent-to-treat effect of receiving outreach on students’ application (via direct admission), enrollment, and matriculation at UTSA. Secondary analyses will examine impacts on FAFSA completion, 12th-grade academic achievement, financial aid, enrollment timing, applications and enrollment at other institutions, field of study, and labor supply.

External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation

Barash, Jori et al. 2026. "Proactive Financial Aid Guarantees." AEA RCT Registry. April 23. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.18333-1.0

Sponsors & Partners

Interventions

Intervention(s)

This study evaluates whether proactively informing and guaranteeing students about their eligibility for need-based financial aid influences their decision to apply, enroll and matriculate at the University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA). In partnership with UTSA and the San Antonio Independent School District (SAISD), the research team will conduct a randomized controlled trial to measure the causal impact of guaranteed tuition among students guaranteed admission, but not yet admitted.

The study sample consists of around 580 San Antonio ISD high school students who are eligible for guaranteed admittance (from being in the top 25% of their class), and are likely eligible for free tuition based on SAISD measure of economically disadvantage. The randomization occurs at the individual level. Half of these students will be randomly assigned to receive a letter (via mail and email) informing them of the guarantee. The other half will receive no additional communication beyond UTSA’s standard outreach.

The experiment will estimate the intent-to-treat effect of receiving this guarantee on students’ college enrollment and matriculation at UTSA. Secondary analyses will examine impacts on FAFSA completion, financial aid receipt, and enrollment timing.

Intervention Start Date

2026-04-28

Intervention End Date

2026-04-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)

Application to UTSA and enrollment for the 2026–27 academic year, and matriculation in the 2027-28 academic year.

Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Application indicates completing the direct admission online form by June 1, 20126 (which is different from a typical application for admission) during 11th grade. Enrollment indicates paying a deposit before the deadline (in the spring of 12th-grade). Matriculation indicates that a student is still enrolled at the start of Fall 2027 classes.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)

FAFSA completion, 12th-grade academic achievement, financial aid, enrollment timing, applications and enrollment at other institutions, field of study, and labor supply.

Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

The experiment uses a student-level randomized controlled trial. Eligible students are those from San Antonio ISD high schools who
(1) are in the top 25% of their graduating class, and
(2) are identified as economically disadvantaged by SAISD

Students will be randomly assigned (50/50) at the individual level to treatment or control conditions.

Control group: Receives standard UTSA communications for those in the Top 25% of their class, informing them of their guaranteed admission.

Treatment group: Treatment group: Receives standard UTSA communications for those in the Top 25% of their class, informing them of their guaranteed admission. In a separate outreach treated students receive an material in English and Spanish stating that they are eligible for the Bold Promise program, including a brief explanation of the program and a link to UTSA’s financial aid website.

The intervention is guarantees students access to the Bold Promise, regardless of students’ actual eligibility. The primary analysis will estimate intent-to-treat effects on enrollment and matriculation outcomes.

Application to UTSA for the 2026–27 academic year, and Enrollment and matriculation in the 2027-28 academic year.

Experimental Design Details

Not available

Randomization Method

The randomization uses the randtreat package in Stata after sorting by an UP Partnership student identifier.

Randomization Unit

Individual

Was the treatment clustered?

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters

580 students

Sample size: planned number of observations

580 students

Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms

290 treated students, 290 control students.

Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)

0.2 standard deviations

Supporting Documents and Materials

IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name

University of Texas at Austin

IRB Approval Date

2023-07-24

IRB Approval Number

STUDY00004129

Analysis Plan