​Contractor Training and Heat Pump Adoption

Last registered on June 15, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
​Contractor Training and Heat Pump Adoption
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0018831
Initial registration date
June 05, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
June 15, 2026, 1:45 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Jenya Kahn-Lang
Affiliation
Resources for the Future
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Jesse Buchsbaum
PI Affiliation
Resources for the Future
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PI Name
Erica Myers
PI Affiliation
University of Calgary
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Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2026-06-15
End date
2028-12-31
Keywords
Education, Environment & Energy
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
L1, Q4, Q5
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
​​Our research question examines whether gaps in contractor knowledge and skills are a binding barrier to electrification and whether contractor training programs can help overcome these constraints. Leveraging Pennsylvania’s rollout of the federally funded Training of Residential Contractors (TREC) program, we will conduct a randomized encouragement design. We will provide additional information, reminders, and incentives to encourage contractors in the treatment group to participate in this program. We will do this through an incentivized survey offered to contractors eligible to participate in the TREC program. We evaluate the impacts of this encouragement on contractor knowledge, sales practices, and heat-pump installation activity.​ This is a pilot experiment, so we also assess survey response and training take-up rates.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Buchsbaum, Jesse, Jenya Kahn-Lang and Erica Myers. 2026. "​Contractor Training and Heat Pump Adoption." AEA RCT Registry. June 15. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.18831-1.0
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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
The intervention is an encouragement to participate in a heat pump training program. Contractors who complete a baseline survey are randomly assigned to receive additional outreach about upcoming trainings and a monetary incentive to attend a training, while the control group receives no additional outreach or incentive from the research team during the intervention period. Control group contractors remain eligible to participate in the same publicly available trainings. This intervention is designed to increase training participation.
Intervention Start Date
2026-07-06
Intervention End Date
2026-11-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Self-reported heat pump installations (boolean, number, and percent of total HVAC or water heater installations), installations receiving low-to-moderate income rebates (from administrative data), self-reported installation practices
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
As one installation practice outcome, we will create an outcome variable of whether they mention manual J in an open response question

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Heat pump training attendance, baseline and follow-up survey response rates
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The study employs a randomized encouragement design (RED). We first recruit a sample of contractors in Pennsylvania to complete a baseline survey on past installations by technology type, sales practices, heat pump installation practices, and firm characteristics. We then randomly assign geographic statistical areas ("metropolitan areas") to a treatment and a pure control group. Within each treated metropolitan area, we randomly assign contractors to either an encouragement group or a spillover group. The encouragement group receives information and a financial incentive to attend a heat pump training, conditional on a training being available in the metropolitan area, while the other contractors do not receive additional outreach. Because training remains available to all contractors, this design identifies the effect of training participation through experimentally induced variation in training take-up. After the intervention period, we invite all participants to complete a follow-up survey similar to the baseline survey to measure key outcomes, including heat pump installations, sales practices, and knowledge.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization done in office by a computer
Randomization Unit
Metropolitan area and contractor
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
36 core-based statistical areas (metropolitan or micropolitan areas)
Sample size: planned number of observations
About 200 contractor companies
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
1/3 pure control, 1/3 treatment, and 1/3 spillover
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
About 2.5 installations
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan