Online and Offline Price Setting of Firms

Last registered on June 15, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Online and Offline Price Setting of Firms
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0018895
Initial registration date
June 09, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
June 15, 2026, 4:37 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
New Zealand
Region
Auckland

Primary Investigator

Name
Saten Kumar
Affiliation
Auckland University of Technology
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
James Greet
PI Affiliation
Auckland University of Technology
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PI Name
Olivier Coibion
PI Affiliation
University of Texas at Austin
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PI Name
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
PI Affiliation
University of California at Berkeley
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PI Name
Ina Hajdini
PI Affiliation
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
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PI Name
Mathieu Pedemonte
PI Affiliation
Inter-American Development Bank
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PI Name
Dennis Wesselbaum
PI Affiliation
University of Otago
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PI Name
Oleksandr Talavera
PI Affiliation
University of Birmingham
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Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2024-04-05
End date
2026-03-30
Keywords
Behavior, Firms & Productivity, Other
Additional Keywords
Expectations, Online Prices, Offline Prices
JEL code(s)
E52, E70
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We survey firms in New Zealand to examine their online and offline pricing strategies. To complement the survey data, we pair web-scraped prices with synchronized, in-store price observations for identical products. Finally, using a randomized controlled trial (RCT), we administer information treatments regarding the inflation outlook to analyze how new macroeconomic information impacts both firm expectations and their subsequent digital and physical pricing decisions.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Coibion, Olivier et al. 2026. "Online and Offline Price Setting of Firms." AEA RCT Registry. June 15. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.18895-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
2024 RCT Waves 1 & 2
Firms are randomized into three groups of approximately equal size. Two groups receive the following information, respectively. Note that Group 0 (control) does not receive any information.

Group 0 (Control): No information

Group 1 (Mean inflation forecast treatment): We are going to give you information from a group of leading experts about the economy. The average prediction among professional forecasters is that the inflation rate in New Zealand will be 3.2% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025.

Group 2 (Inflation uncertainty treatment): We are going to give you information from a group of leading experts about the economy. According to professional forecasters the post-pandemic episode with high uncertainty about inflation is over. Professional forecasters are now very certain about inflation in 2024 and 2025. The difference between the lowest and highest predictions is only 0.8 percentage points for the 2024 inflation rate in New Zealand and equally 0.8 percentage points for the 2025 inflation rate in New Zealand.

2025 RCT Waves 3 & 4
Firms are randomized into three groups of approximately equal size. Two groups receive the following information, respectively. Note that Group 0 (control) does not receive any information.

Group 0 (Control): No information

Group 1 (Mean inflation forecast treatment): We are going to give you information from a group of leading experts about the economy. The average prediction among professional forecasters is that the inflation rate in New Zealand will be 2.5% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026.

Group 2 (Inflation uncertainty treatment): We are going to give you information from a group of leading experts about the economy. According to professional forecasters the post-pandemic episode with high uncertainty about inflation is over. Professional forecasters are now very certain about inflation in 2025 and 2026. The difference between the lowest and highest predictions is only 0.9 percentage points for the 2025 inflation rate and 1.3 percentage points for the 2026 inflation rate in New Zealand.
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2024-04-05
Intervention End Date
2026-03-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
1. Expectations. Macroeconomic expectations (GDP growth and inflation) of firms.

2. Decisions. Firm's decisions on online prices, offline prices, online sales and offline sales.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
The expectations questions asked in surveys were:

First, we’d like you to think about what you perceive as the most pessimistic and most optimistic inflation outlooks (based on the Consumer Price Index, CPI) for New Zealand over the next 12 months. What do you think the lowest annual inflation rate might be for this time period and what do you think the highest might be? (please provide an answer as % per year).
Lowest inflation rate: ……….. % per year
Highest inflation rate: ………..% per year

Now, we’d like you to think about what you perceive as the most pessimistic and most optimistic real GDP growth rate for New Zealand over the next 12 months. What do you think the lowest real GDP growth rate might be for this time period and what do you think the highest might be? (please provide an answer as % per year).
Lowest real GDP growth rate: ………..% per year
Highest real GDP growth rate: ……….% per year

What do you think the inflation rate in New Zealand will be over the next 12 months in each of the following scenarios:
Your pessimistic inflation outlook: ………..% per year
Your middle-of-the-road inflation outlook: ………..% per year
Your optimistic inflation outlook: ………..% per year

What do you think the real GDP growth rate in New Zealand will be over the next 12 months in each of the following scenarios:
Your pessimistic real GDP growth outlook: ………..% per year
Your middle-of-the-road real GDP growth outlook: ………..% per year
Your optimistic real GDP growth outlook:………..% per year

The decision questions asked in surveys were:

Over the next 3 and 6 months, by how much (in % changes relative to current levels) do you expect to change:
The average price of your main product: ……………. %
The online price of your featured product XXX: …………….%
The offline price of your featured product XXX: ……………. %
Sales of your main product: ……………. %
Online sales of your featured product XXX: ……………. %
Offline sales of your featured product XXX: …………….%

Over the last 3 months, by how much (in % changes relative to current levels) did the following change at your firm:
The average price of your main product: …………….%
The online price of your featured product XXX …………….%
The offline price of your featured product XXX: ……………. %
Sales of your main product: ……………. %
Online sales of your featured product XXX: …………….%
Offline sales of your featured product XXX: …………….%

Note: XXX indicates the specific featured product listed on firm's webpage.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Firm age
Employment size
Firm’s operating margin
Respondent qualifications
Frequency of price review: online vs offline
Frequency of price change: online vs offline
Share of firms sales from online market
Number of direct competitors: online market vs offline market
Interaction between firm’s online sales and offline sales
Comparison of online price vs offline price at product level
Cost of price adjustment: online vs offline
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
This study utilizes data from four waves of a survey of firm managers in New Zealand, administered by New Zealand Market Research and Surveys Limited. The first two waves were conducted between April and September 2024, while the final two waves took place between May and December 2025. The sample spans the manufacturing and trade sectors, targeting firms with at least six employees and a minimum annual turnover of $30,000.

The survey was primarily administered via telephone. A randomized controlled trial (RCT) was embedded within the first and third survey waves, where participating firms were randomly allocated into three equally sized groups: one control group and two treatment groups. Firms in the treatment groups received new information regarding the future inflation outlook. We evaluate the impact of this information treatment on firm expectations (specifically regarding inflation and real GDP growth) and subsequent business decisions. These decisions are measured using online and offline prices, as well as online and offline sales volumes. Online price data were collected via web-scraping, while offline price data were gathered through direct in-store price observations. The changes in online and offline prices (priors and posteriors) were also asked to respondents during the survey.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization done in office by a computer
Randomization Unit
Firms
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
2024 Main wave data = 616 firms
2024 Followup data = 274 firms
2025 Main wave data = 1120 firms
2025 Followup data = 471 firms
Sample size: planned number of observations
2024 Main wave data = 616 firms 2024 Followup data = 274 firms 2025 Main wave data = 1120 firms 2025 Followup data = 471 firms
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
2024 Main wave 207 firms in Group 0 (control)
2024 Main wave 208 firms in Group 1 (mean inflation forecast treatment)
2024 Main wave 201 firms in Group 2 (inflation uncertainty treatment)

2025 Main wave 355 firms in Group 0 (control)
2025 Main wave 363 firms in Group 1 (mean inflation forecast treatment)
2025 Main wave 402 firms in Group 2 (inflation uncertainty treatment)
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Auckland University of Technology Ethics Committee
IRB Approval Date
2024-02-22
IRB Approval Number
21/343
IRB Name
University of Otago Human Ethics Committee
IRB Approval Date
2025-05-06
IRB Approval Number
25/0974
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials