Voice and Tax Compliance: Experimental Evidence from Kenya

Last registered on June 17, 2026

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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title

Voice and Tax Compliance: Experimental Evidence from Kenya

RCT ID

AEARCTR-0018902

Initial registration date

June 11, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published

June 17, 2026, 9:05 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name

Tianhao Wang

Affiliation

University of California, Irvine

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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name

James Gilmore

PI Affiliation

University of California, Irvine

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PI Name

Peyton Howard

PI Affiliation

University of California, Irvine

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PI Name

Constantine Manda

PI Affiliation

University of California, Irvine

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PI Name

Lydia Cheruto

PI Affiliation

University of Nairobi

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Additional Trial Information

Status

In development

Start date

2026-06-14

End date

2026-10-01

Keywords

Behavior, Governance

Additional Keywords

tax compliance, state capacity, public good provision

JEL code(s)

Secondary IDs

Prior work

This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.

Abstract

This study uses a randomized controlled experiment to test whether government-issued text messages that invite taxpayer input on public spending can improve property tax compliance among registered property owners in Nairobi County, Kenya. Before the tax deadline, the relevant tax and government authority sends two rounds of SMS messages to property owners randomly assigned to one of two treatment groups: a payment reminder that also invites them to indicate which local spending category should receive funding priority, or the same payment reminder without the invitation. A control group receives no message. Tax compliance is measured using administrative payment records (any payment, amount paid, share of bill paid). After the deadline, both treatment groups receive a single SMS eliciting beliefs about whether the county government responds to resident input; comparing beliefs and payments across groups tests whether any compliance response reflects belief updating rather than alternative explanations. A follow-up SMS survey measures beliefs about the use of tax revenue, attitudes toward government, institutional trust, and perceptions of public service quality.

External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation

Cheruto, Lydia et al. 2026. "Voice and Tax Compliance: Experimental Evidence from Kenya." AEA RCT Registry. June 17. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.18902-1.0

Sponsors & Partners

Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)

Intervention Start Date

2026-06-14

Intervention End Date

2026-10-01

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)

The key outcome variable is tax compliance, measured by total taxes paid and the percentage of taxes paid. Tax morale, measured by the responses to our survey, is also a key outcome variable.

Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)

Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Registered property owners with property tax obligations in Nairobi County, Kenya, are randomized between one control and two treatment groups, based on message content: no message (control), an SMS reminding owners of the upcoming property tax deadline, or the same reminder together with an invitation to indicate which local spending category should receive funding priority. The two treatment groups receive two rounds of SMS messages before the tax payment deadline. After the deadline, both treatment groups receive a single SMS eliciting beliefs about whether the county government responds to resident input; comparing beliefs and payments across groups distinguishes belief updating from alternative explanations for any compliance response. Following the government's delivery of the SMS messages, all participants are invited to complete an SMS survey. The survey includes items on moral attitudes toward non-payment, message recall and credibility, perceived use of tax revenue by the county and national government, trust in public institutions, ease of access to public services, and demographic information. Survey responses are incentivized through a lottery.

Experimental Design Details

Not available

Randomization Method

Randomization done by the relevant tax and government authority by computer (in Excel). Individual property owners are assigned to one of three groups (control, reminder, reminder plus participation), with the same number of subjects per arm. Randomization is at the individual level, stratified by electoral ward (85 wards in Nairobi).

Randomization Unit

Individual property owner

Was the treatment clustered?

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters

Errors will be clustered at the ward level, with 85 wards in Nairobi.

Sample size: planned number of observations

We plan to sample 150,000 property owners; the analysis on tax compliance will be done on the subsample that has not made payments by the treatment date.

Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms

For each treatment arm, we will sample 50,000 owners. These owners will be sampled proportionally across the different wards.

Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)

Supporting Documents and Materials

IRB