Tariffs and Firms’ Expectations and Decisions

Last registered on June 18, 2026

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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title

Tariffs and Firms’ Expectations and Decisions

RCT ID

AEARCTR-0018918

Initial registration date

June 11, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published

June 18, 2026, 9:14 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name

Hung Truong

Affiliation

University of Ottawa

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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name

Isabelle Salle

PI Affiliation

University of Ottawa, University of Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute

Contact Investigator

PI Name

Sylvia Wang

PI Affiliation

University of Ottawa

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Additional Trial Information

Status

On going

Start date

2026-05-15

End date

2026-12-31

Keywords

Behavior, Lab, Other

Additional Keywords

tariffs, macroeconomic expectations, inflation expectations, pricing behaviours

JEL code(s)

F13, D84, E71, C93

Secondary IDs

Prior work

This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.

Abstract

We examine how businesses form expectations and make pricing decisions when economic conditions are uncertain. Participants complete a hypothetical business decision task in which they make repeated pricing choices in a changing market environment. The study is designed to help us understand how firms think about future costs, demand, and broader business conditions, and how these expectations are reflected in their pricing decisions. By comparing decisions across different economic conditions, we will provide evidence on how businesses respond to uncertainty and changing market environments. The findings will contribute to a better understanding of firm behaviour, price-setting, and business expectations.

External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation

Salle, Isabelle, Hung Truong and Sylvia Wang. 2026. "Tariffs and Firms’ Expectations and Decisions." AEA RCT Registry. June 18. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.18918-1.0

Sponsors & Partners

Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)

Intervention Start Date

2026-07-01

Intervention End Date

2026-12-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)

The primary outcome variables are measured at the participant-period level in the experimental decision task. The key pricing outcome is the participant’s submitted percentage change in their own product or service price. The key expectations outcomes are the participant’s expected percentage changes in future demand and future costs. We will analyze these outcomes both as period-level responses and as changes relative to baseline decisions, allowing us to compare how pricing and expectations adjust across different economic conditions.

Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)

Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

We conduct a survey-embedded randomized experiment with business representatives. Participants complete a hypothetical business decision task in which they make repeated pricing decisions in a changing market environment. During the task, participants are asked to consider future business conditions and report their expectations about demand, costs, and related market factors.

Participants are randomly assigned to different versions of the decision environment. These versions vary the economic conditions that participants face during the task, allowing us to compare how pricing decisions and expectations respond across groups. The study is designed to measure how businesses adjust their expectations and pricing choices when market conditions change, while keeping the decision setting comparable across participants.

Experimental Design Details

Not available

Randomization Method

The study sample is randomly selected from a computer. Treatment assignment is implemented by the experimental software using a round-robin allocation procedure. Eligible participants are assigned sequentially across treatment conditions in rotation, which ensures balanced assignment across experimental groups.

Randomization Unit

The unit of randomization is the participating firm representative. Sample selection occurs at the firm level from the Bank of Canada's Business Leaders’ Pulse firm roster. Treatment assignment occurs at the individual respondent/firm level through a round-robin allocation procedure. No additional cluster-level randomization is used.

Was the treatment clustered?