Primary Outcomes (end points)
Primary Hypothesis: The program will lead more firms to export, diversity the range of products exported and destinations exported to, and improve the export performance of participating firms.
This primary hypothesis will be measured through the following primary outcomes, all obtained from administrative data on export performance, where past year will denote the year from the start of the intervention phase onwards (anticipated to be the period August 2018-July 2019):
1. Extensive margin: Export at all in the past year: This is a binary variable, defined as one if the firm exports directly at all in the one year period since the intervention begins, and zero otherwise.
2. Number of Distinct Products Exported in the past year: The number of different product categories exported in the past year, using the 6-digit product classification in the harmonized system for the Andean Community. This will be coded as zero for firms that do not export, and will be winsorized at the 99th percentile.
3. Number of Different Countries Exported to in the past year. The number of different countries the firm exported to in the past year, coded as zero for firms that do not export, and winsorized at the 99th percentile.
4. Number of Distinct Product-Country Combinations Exported in the past year: This counts the number of product-country combinations a firm exported to in the past year, coded as zero for firms that do not export, and winsorized at the 99th percentile.
5. Export innovation (new product-country combination): This is a binary variable coded as one if the firm exported to a product-country pair that they had not exported to at all in the past three years, and zero otherwise. Coded as zero for firms that do not export.
6. Inverse Hyperbolic Sine of Total Export Value in the past year. This takes the inverse hyperbolic sine transformation (log(y+(y2+1)1/2) of total exports (measured in US dollars), and is coded as zero for firms that do not export.
7. Inverse Hyperbolic Since of Export Labor Productivity: This is the inverse hyperbolic sine of the ratio of total export value in the past year (measured in US dollars) to the average number of workers used in the past year (obtained from the PILA database, which has monthly data on formal workers). This is coded as zero for firms that do not export, and winsorized at the 99th percentile.
8. A standardized export outcomes index: This index will be calculated as the average of the normalized z-scores of outcomes 1 through 7, where each z-score is defined by subtracting the mean and dividing by the standard deviation of the respective outcome.