Primary Outcomes (explanation)
We will test a series of predictions from macroeconomic models. For example, if an individual believes that the nominal exchange rate will go up in the next 12 months, that individual may want to buy soon imported goods such as consumer electronics. For these outcomes, we'll have two versions:
(i) Subjective measures of future spending elicited at the end of the survey.
(i) Objective measures of actual future spending obtained from the administrative records of the bank.
For example, we included one subjective question about whether it was a good time to buy consumer electronics. And we can use the bank's transaction data to measure (approximately) the actual spending on consumer electronics. Given that the transaction data is high-frequency data, we can explore effects at different time horizons (e.g., the effects during the first month versus the effect during the first three months).