Conditional transfers after prison and their effects on criminal recidivism: Experimental evidence of "Hacemos Futuro" program in the Province of Buenos Aires, Argentina

Last registered on August 09, 2019
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Conditional transfers after prison and their effects on criminal recidivism: Experimental evidence of "Hacemos Futuro" program in the Province of Buenos Aires, Argentina
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0003958
Initial registration date
August 08, 2019

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
August 09, 2019, 9:47 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Argentina
Region
Province of Buenos Aires

Primary Investigator

Name
Pilar CAF
Affiliation
CAF - Development Bank of Latin America
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Ernesto Schargrodsky
PI Affiliation
Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Eduardo Fagre
PI Affiliation
CAF - Development Bank of Latin America
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2017-12-01
End date
2020-01-31
Keywords
Crime, Violence, & Conflict, Other
Additional Keywords
conditional cash transfers, probation, criminal recidivism, experimental design, Argentina, impact evaluation
JEL code(s)
K14
Secondary IDs
Abstract
This study intends to identify the effects of a conditional cash transfer program (“Hacemos Futuro” or HF) on criminal recidivism of population under probation schemes in the Province of Buenos Aires, Argentina. This program was designed by Ministerio de Salud y Desarrollo Social (MDS) and implemented by Patronato de Liberados Bonaerense (PLB); a public institution which aims to prevent crime through social inclusion of inmates released from incarceration, working in order to overcome socioeconomic vulnerability.
The probation population benefited from the program is selected by a randomized selection. The beneficiaries of HF receives a monthly subsidy of about USD 150 conditional on social information update, educational terminality and vocational training. This subsidy aims to alleviate the budgetary burdens on people under socio-economic vulnerability, while the conditionality seeks to promote the development of people through higher levels of education and job skills in order to guarantee opportunities for market labor insertion.
The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of HF program on the rate of criminal recidivism of population under probation schemes in Buenos Aires. Additionally, it intends to analyze the mechanisms of transmission inherent to the potential impact of the program on criminal behavior, such as market labor insertion, access to education, housing and health, among others.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
CAF, Pilar, Eduardo Fagre and Ernesto Schargrodsky . 2019. "Conditional transfers after prison and their effects on criminal recidivism: Experimental evidence of "Hacemos Futuro" program in the Province of Buenos Aires, Argentina." AEA RCT Registry. August 09. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.3958-1.0
Former Citation
CAF, Pilar, Eduardo Fagre and Ernesto Schargrodsky . 2019. "Conditional transfers after prison and their effects on criminal recidivism: Experimental evidence of "Hacemos Futuro" program in the Province of Buenos Aires, Argentina." AEA RCT Registry. August 09. https://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/3958/history/51490
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
The beneficiaries of HF receive a monthly subsidy of about USD 150 conditional on social information update, educational terminality and vocational training.
Intervention Start Date
2018-01-01
Intervention End Date
2020-01-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Recidivism rate
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
This variable will be constructed using police records and information from the prison system

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Work, formal job, education, formal education, courses, vocational training, health, housing
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
These variables will be collected using a socioeconomic survey, a follow up survey that is made by social assistants of Patronato de Liberados Bonaerense. ANSES records on Sistema Integrado Previsional Argentino (SIPA) could be used to collect data of formal employment.

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The probation population benefited from the program is selected by a two level randomized trial. The first level consisted of randomizing the order of implementation of the program in PLB delegations. Thirty-nine municipalities/delegations were prioritized to receive the treatment. The second level was based on randomly selecting the beneficiaries of the program in each of the delegations that would gradually constitute the treatment group. Fifteen randomizations were made that included 2164 inmates released from prison in the treatment group and 1501 inmates released from prison in the control group. The first-level priority in the order of implementation of the program across delegations was abandoned after the sixth randomization and all delegations were included.
Experimental Design Details
-
Randomization Method
Randomization done in office by a computer (software Stata)
Randomization Unit
First, we randomize delegations of Patronato de Liberados Bonarense. Once we have our 39 delegations ordered, we proceed to randomize the beneficiaries assigned to the treatment group and those people, who will not receive the subsidy, who will make up the control group. The first-level priority in the order of implementation of the program was abandoned after the sixth randomization and all delegations were included.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
39 delegations/municipalities
Sample size: planned number of observations
3665 inmates released from prison
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
2164 inmates released from prison in the treatment group and 1501 inmates released from prison in the control group.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
-
Supporting Documents and Materials

Documents

Document Name
Formulario de levantamiento de información
Document Type
survey_instrument
Document Description
Formulario de levantamiento de información
File
Formulario de levantamiento de información

MD5: cb61a1d2c62df6c95fcd1d7c9a0cfb22

SHA1: 75b368a45194f0c10a6c8747affc343ac7d1c229

Uploaded At: August 08, 2019

Document Name
CONSTANCIA de la Comisión de ética 18-06-2018
Document Type
irb_protocol
Document Description
CONSTANCIA de la Comisión de ética 18-06-2018
File
CONSTANCIA de la Comisión de ética 18-06-2018

MD5: cbdcd2b2e46fdaf73277ac817550760a

SHA1: 28f19e95fdad205c4fd2367d7c3a9c9340d79b89

Uploaded At: August 07, 2019

IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Universidad Católica Andres Bello
IRB Approval Date
2018-06-18
IRB Approval Number
01-2018
Analysis Plan

Analysis Plan Documents

Propuesta metodológica Patronato

MD5: cd2e25234e3a25cd1755c8fd23426eb1

SHA1: 4c4fce3a42354c733bfc0b6834a5bd926a77cf35

Uploaded At: August 08, 2019

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials