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Information and Alternatives to Irregular Migration
Initial registration date
March 16, 2019
January 15, 2020 7:32 PM EST
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Other Primary Investigator(s)
Universidade Nova de Lisboa
Universidade Nova de Lisboa
Additional Trial Information
This study tests three different approaches designed to reduce risky, irregular migration from West Africa to Europe. The first approach is to provide potential migrants with better information about the risks to be faced during the journey, including testimonials from those who have attempted the journey and statistics on the likelihood of experiencing negative events en route. The second approach is to also provide a second migration alternative, by adding information and assistance on considering migration to a neighboring country as an alternative to the risky irregular migration. The third approach is to provide an alternative path at home, by providing vocational skill training in addition to the information about the risks of irregular migration.
Intervention 1 (Information): Potential Migrants will be given testimonials from those who have attempted irregular migration to Europe, and also shown statistics about the process
Intervention 2: (Information + a Migration Alternative): Potential Migrants will receive intervention 1, combined with information and assistance to try out an alternative, less risky migration option
Intervention 3: (Information + a Skill-Building Alternative): Potential Migrants will receive intervention 1, combined with the offer of vocational training
Intervention Start Date
Intervention End Date
Primary Outcomes (end points)
Our key outcomes are:
1) Knowledge and Beliefs of the risks of irregular migration
2) Migration Intentions
3) Migration Actions
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
These key outcomes will be refined before the endline, and the exact questions need to be formulated for the endline survey. But provisionally we plan:
1) Asking a set of factual questions about the irregular migration process, to see whether those who receive the interventions know better the risks of irregular migration, and elicitation of their beliefs about the riskiness. The outcomes will then be the number of questions the respondent gets right (knowledge index), and an index of standardized z-scores of their beliefs about the risks of not making it as far as Libya or Morocco; being arrested or imprisoned before Europe; being attached or robbed; dying on the way to Europe; not making it to Europe; not getting residency or refugee status in Europe; and not making it across the Mediterranean. 2) Migration intentions will ask them the percent chance they will move to Europe in the next year, the percent chance they will migrate to Senegal in the next year, and the percent chance of internal migration in the next year. 3) Migration actions:
In the short run, we will measure their willingness to obtain more information about migration to Europe by sending an SMS number to request an organization show up to talk about migration.
In the endline, we will measure actions towards migration to Europe, Senegal, and internally: this will include questions on whether they have invested in finding out more information about how to travel there, or asked for help in finding a job there; whether they attempted to migrate; and whether they actually migrated.
Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Key secondary outcomes will be employment (hours worked and income earned); well-being (subjective happiness and mental health); and physical health (have not experienced beatings, hunger, violence, or death).
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
Our pre-analysis plan will precisely define these outcomes prior to the endline.
400 villages will be selected for this study, and in each village, 20 males aged 18-30 will be selected for the intervention. Villages will then be randomly assigned to one of four groups:
1) 100 control villages: youth in these villages will receive a placebo video intervention on health
2) 100 information villages: youth in these villages will receive better information about the risks to be faced during the journey, including testimonials from those who have attempted the journey and statistics on the likelihood of experiencing negative events en route. 3) 100 information + migration alternative villages: youth in these villages will receive the same information as group 2), plus information and assistance on considering migration to a neighboring country as an alternative to the risky irregular migration. 4) 100 information + skill alternative villages: youth in these villages will receive the same information as group 2), plus the offer of free vocational skill training.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization to be done in office by computer.
Randomization will be at the village level, stratified by geography
A second-level randomization will take place at the individual-level, and concerns the baseline timing of when we measure beliefs and intentions.
Was the treatment clustered?
Sample size: planned number of clusters
Sample size: planned number of observations
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
100 villages control
100 villages information only
100 villages information plus alternative migration destination
100 villages information plus vocational training
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
To be completed after baseline survey, since control means and standard deviations of key outcomes are unknown.
INSTITUTIONAL REVIEW BOARDS (IRBs)
Nova School of Business and Economics
IRB Approval Date