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Information and Alternatives to Irregular Migration

Last registered on January 15, 2020

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Information and Alternatives to Irregular Migration
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0003998
Initial registration date
March 16, 2019

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
March 23, 2019, 8:07 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
January 15, 2020, 7:32 PM EST

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
World Bank

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
Universidade Nova de Lisboa
PI Affiliation
DIAL/IRD/PSE
PI Affiliation
Universidade Nova de Lisboa

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2019-04-15
End date
2020-11-30
Secondary IDs
Abstract
This study tests three different approaches designed to reduce risky, irregular migration from West Africa to Europe. The first approach is to provide potential migrants with better information about the risks to be faced during the journey, including testimonials from those who have attempted the journey and statistics on the likelihood of experiencing negative events en route. The second approach is to also provide a second migration alternative, by adding information and assistance on considering migration to a neighboring country as an alternative to the risky irregular migration. The third approach is to provide an alternative path at home, by providing vocational skill training in addition to the information about the risks of irregular migration.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Bah, Tijan et al. 2020. "Information and Alternatives to Irregular Migration." AEA RCT Registry. January 15. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.3998-4.0
Former Citation
Bah, Tijan et al. 2020. "Information and Alternatives to Irregular Migration." AEA RCT Registry. January 15. https://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/3998/history/195657
Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention 1 (Information): Potential Migrants will be given testimonials from those who have attempted irregular migration to Europe, and also shown statistics about the process
Intervention 2: (Information + a Migration Alternative): Potential Migrants will receive intervention 1, combined with information and assistance to try out an alternative, less risky migration option
Intervention 3: (Information + a Skill-Building Alternative): Potential Migrants will receive intervention 1, combined with the offer of vocational training
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention 1: This will have two components:
1) At the time of the baseline survey, potential migrants will be shown a video that includes i) animated statistics showing the low probability of getting to Europe successfully, and the risks faced along the way; and ii) testimonials from both Gambian irregular migrants who have made it to Italy who note that life is not as good there as often perceived, and testimonials from those who were deported or who attempted to migrate and failed.
2) Approximately one month later, they will receive a theater sketch and live testimonials from an organization founded by Gambian returnees.

Intervention 2: in addition to intervention 1, they will receive at the time of the baseline survey:
1) Information about migrating to Senegal: this will include video testimonials of those who migrated describing the process and their life in Senegal; statistics on incomes for different jobs in Senegal, and what the rules are for working there.
2) A bus voucher that will provide the opportunity for free travel to Dakar within a set time period after the baseline.

Intervention 3: in addition to intervention 1, they will receive at the time of the baseline survey
1) a voucher for free vocational training in the Gambia, which needs to be redeemed within a set time period after the baseline.




Intervention Start Date
2019-04-22
Intervention End Date
2019-11-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Our key outcomes are:
1) Knowledge and Beliefs of the risks of irregular migration
2) Migration Intentions
3) Migration Actions
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
These key outcomes will be refined before the endline, and the exact questions need to be formulated for the endline survey. But provisionally we plan:
1) Asking a set of factual questions about the irregular migration process, to see whether those who receive the interventions know better the risks of irregular migration, and elicitation of their beliefs about the riskiness. The outcomes will then be the number of questions the respondent gets right (knowledge index), and an index of standardized z-scores of their beliefs about the risks of not making it as far as Libya or Morocco; being arrested or imprisoned before Europe; being attached or robbed; dying on the way to Europe; not making it to Europe; not getting residency or refugee status in Europe; and not making it across the Mediterranean.
2) Migration intentions will ask them the percent chance they will move to Europe in the next year, the percent chance they will migrate to Senegal in the next year, and the percent chance of internal migration in the next year.
3) Migration actions:
In the short run, we will measure their willingness to obtain more information about migration to Europe by sending an SMS number to request an organization show up to talk about migration.
In the endline, we will measure actions towards migration to Europe, Senegal, and internally: this will include questions on whether they have invested in finding out more information about how to travel there, or asked for help in finding a job there; whether they attempted to migrate; and whether they actually migrated.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Key secondary outcomes will be employment (hours worked and income earned); well-being (subjective happiness and mental health); and physical health (have not experienced beatings, hunger, violence, or death).
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
Our pre-analysis plan will precisely define these outcomes prior to the endline.

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
400 villages will be selected for this study, and in each village, 20 males aged 18-30 will be selected for the intervention. Villages will then be randomly assigned to one of four groups:
1) 100 control villages: youth in these villages will receive a placebo video intervention on health
2) 100 information villages: youth in these villages will receive better information about the risks to be faced during the journey, including testimonials from those who have attempted the journey and statistics on the likelihood of experiencing negative events en route.
3) 100 information + migration alternative villages: youth in these villages will receive the same information as group 2), plus information and assistance on considering migration to a neighboring country as an alternative to the risky irregular migration.
4) 100 information + skill alternative villages: youth in these villages will receive the same information as group 2), plus the offer of free vocational skill training.
Experimental Design Details
400 settlements (villages) in high-migration rural areas will be selected for this study, and then randomly allocated at the village level to one of the four treatment groups as defined above.

In addition, a second randomization will take place in administering the baseline question. This randomization will occur at the individual level within villages, whereby 1/3 of the individuals will be asked their migration beliefs and intentions before the intervention is given to them; 1/3 will get these questions asked at the end of the baseline interview after the intervention is given to them; and 1/3 will receive the questions both before and after the intervention.
Randomization Method
Randomization to be done in office by computer.
Randomization Unit
Randomization will be at the village level, stratified by geography
A second-level randomization will take place at the individual-level, and concerns the baseline timing of when we measure beliefs and intentions.
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
400 Villages
Sample size: planned number of observations
8,000 youth
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
100 villages control
100 villages information only
100 villages information plus alternative migration destination
100 villages information plus vocational training
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
To be completed after baseline survey, since control means and standard deviations of key outcomes are unknown.
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Nova School of Business and Economics
IRB Approval Date
2019-03-01
IRB Approval Number
N/A
Analysis Plan

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Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
Yes
Intervention Completion Date
July 01, 2021, 12:00 +00:00
Data Collection Complete
Yes
Data Collection Completion Date
March 31, 2021, 12:00 +00:00
Final Sample Size: Number of Clusters (Unit of Randomization)
3641 men from 391 settlements (clusters)
Was attrition correlated with treatment status?
No
Final Sample Size: Total Number of Observations
3640 (for migration status)
Final Sample Size (or Number of Clusters) by Treatment Arms
889 individuals control, 953 individuals information, 907 individuals Senegal treatment, 892 individuals vocational training treatment. There are 98 villages (clusters) for each treatment, except for the information treatment which has 97.
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
Yes

Program Files

Program Files
Yes
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Abstract
Irregular migration from West Africa to Europe across the Sahara and Mediterranean is extremely
risky for migrants and a key policy concern. A cluster-randomized experiment with 3,641 young men
from 391 settlements in The Gambia is used to test three approaches to reducing risky migration:
providing better information and testimonials about the risks of the journey, facilitating migration to
a safer destination by providing information and assistance for migration to Dakar, and offering
vocational skill training to enhance domestic employment opportunities. Current migration to
Senegal was increased by both the Dakar facilitation and vocational training treatments, partially
crowding out internal migration. The vocational training treatment reduced intentions to migrate the
backway and the number of steps taken toward moving. However, the backway migration rate from
The Gambia collapsed, even in the control group, resulting in no space for a treatment effect on
irregular migration from any of the three interventions.
Citation
Tijan L. Bah, Catia Batista, Flore Gubert, David McKenzie (2023) "Can information and alternatives to irregular migration reduce “backway” migration from The Gambia?" Journal of Development Economics, Volume 165: 103153,

Reports & Other Materials