HOW DOES CONSUMPTION RESPOND TO NEWS ABOUT INFLATION? FIELD EVIDENCE FROM A RANDOMIZED CONTROL TRIAL

Last registered on July 19, 2019

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
HOW DOES CONSUMPTION RESPOND TO NEWS ABOUT INFLATION? FIELD EVIDENCE FROM A RANDOMIZED CONTROL TRIAL
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0004462
Initial registration date
July 18, 2019
Last updated
July 19, 2019, 12:04 PM EDT

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
University of Texas at Austin

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
PI Affiliation
PI Affiliation

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2018-04-01
End date
2018-07-31
Secondary IDs
Abstract
We implement a survey of Dutch households in which random subsets of respondents receive information about inflation. The resulting exogenously generated variation in inflation expectations is used to assess how expectations affect subsequent monthly consumption decisions relative to those in a control group. The causal effects of elevated inflation expectations on non-durable spending are imprecisely estimated but there is a sharp negative effect on durable spending. We provide evidence that this is likely driven by the fact that Dutch households seem to become more pessimistic about their real income as well as aggregate spending when they increase their inflation expectations. There is little evidence to support the idea that the degree to which respondents change their beliefs or their spending in response to information treatments depends on their level of cognitive or financial constraints.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Coibion, Olivier et al. 2019. "HOW DOES CONSUMPTION RESPOND TO NEWS ABOUT INFLATION? FIELD EVIDENCE FROM A RANDOMIZED CONTROL TRIAL ." AEA RCT Registry. July 19. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.4462-1.0
Former Citation
Coibion, Olivier et al. 2019. "HOW DOES CONSUMPTION RESPOND TO NEWS ABOUT INFLATION? FIELD EVIDENCE FROM A RANDOMIZED CONTROL TRIAL ." AEA RCT Registry. July 19. https://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/4462/history/50403
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
General public
Intervention Start Date
2018-04-01
Intervention End Date
2018-07-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Household Spending
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Expectations about individual and aggregate outcomes
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We implement a survey of Dutch households in which random subsets of respondents receive information about inflation. The resulting exogenously generated variation in inflation expectations is used to assess how expectations affect subsequent monthly consumption decisions relative to those in a control group.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization by computer.
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
~2000 individuals
Sample size: planned number of observations
~2000 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
700
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials