Internal Uncertainty in Belief Formation and Choice under Risk

Last registered on January 09, 2020
View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Internal Uncertainty in Belief Formation and Choice under Risk
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0004493
Initial registration date
July 26, 2019

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
July 26, 2019, 4:31 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
January 09, 2020, 4:20 PM EST

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Country
United States of America
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Benjamin Enke
Affiliation
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Thomas Graeber
PI Affiliation

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2019-07-29
End date
2019-12-31
Keywords
Other
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Abstract
We use laboratory experiments to study the relationship between internal uncertainty and (i) belief updating, (ii) survey expectations, and (iii) choice under risk.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Enke, Benjamin and Thomas Graeber. 2020. "Internal Uncertainty in Belief Formation and Choice under Risk." AEA RCT Registry. January 09. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.4493-1.3
Former Citation
Enke, Benjamin and Thomas Graeber. 2020. "Internal Uncertainty in Belief Formation and Choice under Risk." AEA RCT Registry. January 09. https://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/4493/history/60339
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2019-07-29
Intervention End Date
2019-12-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
- Stated posterior beliefs in belief updating tasks
- Expectations about inflation rates, stock returns, and the income distribution
- Choices between monetary gambles
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We measure subjects' internal uncertainty and link it to behavior in belief updating tasks, survey expectations, and choice under risk.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Computer
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
n/a
Sample size: planned number of observations
2000
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
See attached PDF document
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials

Documents

Document Name
Summary of pre-registration / experimental design
Document Type
other
Document Description
File
Summary of pre-registration / experimental design

MD5: 9a7ceb72c8afb38658ac74b38750515b

SHA1: 575220add83f305d87f4099bc5092cdcaa4f87c8

Uploaded At: July 26, 2019

Document Name
Second part of pre-registration / experimental design
Document Type
other
Document Description
File
Second part of pre-registration / experimental design

MD5: 4761c5df4f8e80c212e72d78e47f4695

SHA1: 9b53a3953c5493c18108ce9b8b9234fe7bb030c5

Uploaded At: October 13, 2019

Document Name
Third part of pre-registration / experimental design
Document Type
other
Document Description
File
Third part of pre-registration / experimental design

MD5: b80e27d59c2108d0b7a5f43ab324d204

SHA1: 62a148d419348e22469388fbe4361683eef9a8f4

Uploaded At: November 06, 2019

IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Harvard IRB
IRB Approval Date
2019-01-09
IRB Approval Number
IRB16-1753
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials