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Consumption response to inflation expectations
Last registered on September 26, 2019

Pre-Trial

Trial Information
General Information
Title
Consumption response to inflation expectations
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0004786
Initial registration date
September 26, 2019
Last updated
September 26, 2019 11:52 AM EDT
Location(s)
Region
Primary Investigator
Affiliation
University of California, Berkeley
Other Primary Investigator(s)
PI Affiliation
University of Texas, Austin
PI Affiliation
European Central Bank
PI Affiliation
De Nederlandsche Bank
Additional Trial Information
Status
Completed
Start date
2018-03-01
End date
2018-07-31
Secondary IDs
Abstract
We implement a survey of Dutch households in which random subsets of respondents receive information about inflation. The resulting exogenously generated variation in inflation expectations is used to assess how expectations affect subsequent monthly consumption decisions relative to those in a control group. The causal effects of elevated inflation expectations on non-durable spending are imprecisely estimated but there is a sharp negative effect on durable spending. We provide evidence that this is likely driven by the fact that Dutch households seem to become more pessimistic about their real income as well as aggregate spending when they increase their inflation expectations. There is little evidence to support the idea that the degree to which respondents change their beliefs or their spending in response to information treatments depends on their level of cognitive or financial constraints.
External Link(s)
Registration Citation
Citation
Coibion, Olivier et al. 2019. "Consumption response to inflation expectations." AEA RCT Registry. September 26. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.4786-1.0.
Experimental Details
Interventions
Intervention(s)
Provide households with recent CPI inflation (publicly available information)
Intervention Start Date
2018-03-30
Intervention End Date
2018-03-31
Primary Outcomes
Primary Outcomes (end points)
Household spending on durable and non-durable goods
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
consumption response to inflation expectations
Secondary Outcomes
Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
Experimental Design
Experimental Design
Classic RCT
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
randomization done by a computer
Randomization Unit
respondent
Was the treatment clustered?
No
Experiment Characteristics
Sample size: planned number of clusters
approximately 2,000 respondents
Sample size: planned number of observations
approximately 2,000 respondents
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
about 700 respondents per arm
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB
INSTITUTIONAL REVIEW BOARDS (IRBs)
Post-Trial
Post Trial Information
Study Withdrawal
Intervention
Is the intervention completed?
No
Is data collection complete?
Data Publication
Data Publication
Is public data available?
No
Program Files
Program Files
Reports and Papers
Preliminary Reports
Relevant Papers