What Are My Chances? Incomplete Information and College Students' Effort

Last registered on January 27, 2021


Trial Information

General Information

What Are My Chances? Incomplete Information and College Students' Effort
Initial registration date
September 04, 2020

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
September 08, 2020, 9:39 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
January 27, 2021, 12:09 PM EST

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.


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Primary Investigator

Management Development Institute Gurgaon

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
Florida Gulf Coast University

Additional Trial Information

On going
Start date
End date
Secondary IDs
Students form beliefs about their expected performance in a course based on incomplete information. This may cause students to make sub-optimal effort decisions and ultimately negatively impact their performance. In this study, we examine the impact of providing students with complete information about their likelihood of success in a course. Using a field experiment, we study how such an intervention affects students' effort, attendance and academic performance.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Arora, Puneet and Nicholas Wright. 2021. "What Are My Chances? Incomplete Information and College Students' Effort." AEA RCT Registry. January 27. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.6408-1.1
Experimental Details


Intervention Start Date
Intervention End Date

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
1. Effort 1: Planned and actual study time
2. Effort 2: Attendance, extra credit, homework
3. Expected/goal grade
4. Mid term and final exam grades
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We will randomly assign students into two groups - treatment and control.

Control group will fill the same set of incentivized baseline and endline surveys as the treatment group. The only difference will be that the treatment group will be revealed the information about past grade distribution.

The assignment of students to the two groups will happen randomly and individually. They'll be assigned to their respective groups in the early days of the course using a random device,. The assignment, however, will not be conducted before the drop-out date has passed. This will prevent any spill-overs by students switching between classes as a result of our intervention.

We plan to collect past assessment scores and other relevant student related demographic information. A risk-aversion question to elicit a measure of their risk-attitudes is also included in the baseline survey.

The incentive used to make students participate in the experiment is an extra credit (or a part of an extra credit ) in the course. That extra credit will be uniform for the entire class and will be directly proportional to the percent of students from the class participating in the experiment. However, the extra credit awarded will be given to all students, regardless of their participation status.

The pilot started in the Fall semester 2020 (3 classrooms, 133 students) and the project continues in Spring 2021 (7 classrooms, 261 students).
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization done in office by a computer
Randomization Unit
Individual level randomization at the initial stage to assign students into treatment and control groups. We will do stratified randomization where each classroom will act as a strata/block within which we will randomize students.
Was the treatment clustered?

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
10 classrooms (over two semesters)
Sample size: planned number of observations
394 students
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Roughly same number of students in each group
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
0.2 standard deviation (1.5%) increase expected

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Florida Gulf Coast University IRB
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number