Understanding smallholder arbitrage in Kenyan maize markets

Last registered on September 06, 2013

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Understanding smallholder arbitrage in Kenyan maize markets
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0000067
First published
September 06, 2013, 7:20 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
University of California - Berkeley

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2012-08-01
End date
2014-08-15
Secondary IDs
Abstract
Rural grain markets throughout much of the developing world are characterized by large, regular seasonal price fluctuations. Farmer behavior in light of these fluctuations is often puzzling: the vast majority appear to sell their produce when prices are low, buy when prices are high, or often both. This behavior appears to persist despite farmers’ general recognition of these price patterns, and the availability of a simple technology - storage - which can be used to move grain intertemporally.

Why don’t farmers use storage to take better advantage of these seasonal price fluctuations? Working with 1589 smallholder maize farmers and an NGO implementing partner in Webuye District in Western Kenya, we designed and implemented an experiment to test two hypotheses: (1) farmers are liquidity constrained and thus sell their maize at low post-harvest prices because they need the cash, and (2) farmers’ friends and family make frequent claims on stored maize, reducing the incentive to store.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Burke, Marshall. 2013. "Understanding smallholder arbitrage in Kenyan maize markets." AEA RCT Registry. September 06. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.67-1.0
Former Citation
Burke, Marshall. 2013. "Understanding smallholder arbitrage in Kenyan maize markets." AEA RCT Registry. September 06. https://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/67/history/312
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2012-10-01
Intervention End Date
2013-08-15

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
maize inventories, maize prices paid and received, maize revenues, and consumption expenditure
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Farmers were divided into two main treatment groups (an October loan group and a January loan group), and a control group.
Experimental Design Details
See pre-analysis plan.
Randomization Method
Randomization was done in office by a computer
Randomization Unit
farmer groups
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
240 groups, of 6-8 farmers each
Sample size: planned number of observations
1589 total farmers
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
80 groups in C, 77 in T1, 75 in T2
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
UC Berkeley Committee for Protection of Human Subjects
IRB Approval Date
2012-06-07
IRB Approval Number
2010-06-1696
Analysis Plan

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Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials