Testing the elicitation procedure of the Minimum Acceptable Probability
Last registered on June 16, 2021

Pre-Trial

Trial Information
General Information
Title
Testing the elicitation procedure of the Minimum Acceptable Probability
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0007776
Initial registration date
June 16, 2021
Last updated
June 16, 2021 10:54 AM EDT
Location(s)
Primary Investigator
Affiliation
Maastricht University
Other Primary Investigator(s)
PI Affiliation
Maastricht University
Additional Trial Information
Status
In development
Start date
2021-06-17
End date
2021-07-01
Secondary IDs
Abstract
We examine in how far the elicitation procedure of the Minimum Acceptable Probability (MAP) used by Bohnet and Zeckhauser (2004) is influenced by the presentation of the probability distribution of the winning probability. Should the distribution have an influence on participants’ MAP, this is evidence that was has been called ‘betrayal aversion’ in previous studies is (partly) due to factors other than an anticipated disutility of betrayal.
External Link(s)
Registration Citation
Citation
Polipciuc, Maria and Martin Strobel. 2021. "Testing the elicitation procedure of the Minimum Acceptable Probability." AEA RCT Registry. June 16. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.7776-1.0.
Experimental Details
Interventions
Intervention(s)
We compare minimum acceptable probabilities (MAPs) for which a participant prefers a binary lottery to a sure payoff across treatments within and across individuals. Individuals have to decide in randomized order in three scenarios (treatments). The treatments keep the sure payoff and the payoffs of the lottery fixed, but vary the distribution of the winning probability of the lottery.
Intervention Start Date
2021-06-17
Intervention End Date
2021-07-01
Primary Outcomes
Primary Outcomes (end points)
Minimum acceptable probabilities (MAPs)
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
The MAPs are elicited as thresholds for preferring a lottery to a sure payoff.
Secondary Outcomes
Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
Experimental Design
Experimental Design
We elicit MAPs in an online experiment in a lottery similar to the Decision Problem in Bohnet and Zeckhauser (2004). Bohnet and Zeckhauser (2004) find that participants require a premium for being willing to trust someone compared to taking an equally risky bet with the same payoff externalities for an uninvolved person. They attribute this premium to betrayal aversion—an anticipatory disutility from being betrayed.
In this study, we experimentally test a confounding explanation for this premium. We test whether participants’ MAPs vary systematically as a result of the underlying distribution from which the probability of success of the lottery is drawn. We exogenously manipulate participants’ probabilistic beliefs about this distribution by varying the different objective distributions of the winning probability.
We then compare the resulting MAPs across treatments. We also compare the magnitude of the treatment effects with the effects in Bohnet and Zeckhauser (2004); Bohnet et al. (2008).
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Computer
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No
Experiment Characteristics
Sample size: planned number of clusters
450
Sample size: planned number of observations
450
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
450 individuals. It is a within-subject design, so all individuals go through the three treatments. The sequence in which the go through the treatments is randomized (there are six possibilities in total).
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
With 400 valid responses, we have 80% power to detect a statistically significant effect at 5% level of 0.062 (for MAPs in the [0,1] interval) with no order effects. Since in this study MAPs are integers between 0 and 15, this translates into a minimum detectable effect size of 0.93. If we assume second and third decision are `sticky' i.e. stay close to the first decision, the we have 80% power to detect a statistically significant effect at 5% level of 0.05 on for MAPs on a scale from 0 to 1, or 0.75 for MAPs between 0 and 15.
IRB
INSTITUTIONAL REVIEW BOARDS (IRBs)
IRB Name
Ethical Review Committee Inner City Faculties
IRB Approval Date
2021-06-09
IRB Approval Number
ERCIC_264_08_06_2021
Analysis Plan

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Post-Trial
Post Trial Information
Study Withdrawal
Intervention
Is the intervention completed?
No
Is data collection complete?
Data Publication
Data Publication
Is public data available?
No
Program Files
Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials
Relevant Paper(s)
REPORTS & OTHER MATERIALS