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Impact of COVID-19 Stimulus Packages on Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in Colombia

Last registered on July 09, 2021
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Impact of COVID-19 Stimulus Packages on Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in Colombia
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0007936
Initial registration date
July 08, 2021

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
July 09, 2021, 12:46 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Colombia
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Sean Higgins
Affiliation
Northwestern University
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Sean Higgins
PI Affiliation
Northwestern University
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PI Name
Paul Gertler
PI Affiliation
University of California, Berkeley
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PI Name
Raimundo Undurraga
PI Affiliation
Universidad de Chile
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PI Name
Eric Parrado
PI Affiliation
Inter-American Development Bank
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PI Name
Ana María Montoya
PI Affiliation
Universidad de Chile
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Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2021-05-17
End date
2022-05-31
Keywords
Finance & Microfinance
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Abstract
The economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis in Latin America hinges on the survival of SMEs, which employ a large fraction of the region’s workforce. Governments are responding with large economic stimulus packages, including liquidity or methods to prop up demand for SMEs. We are evaluating the impact of randomly offering loans to SMEs within the framework of the Colombian Government COVID-19 support program. The researchers hope to understand what might be preventing firms from taking up these services and to quantify the impact of pandemic-specific protections and relief on firm profits, survival, and employment.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Gertler, Paul et al. 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 Stimulus Packages on Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in Colombia." AEA RCT Registry. July 09. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.7936-1.0
Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
A Colombian bank randomly offers credits to SMEs. Credits are supported by the COVID-19 stimulus package designed by the Colombian Government.
Intervention Start Date
2021-05-17
Intervention End Date
2021-07-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Our primary outcomes are firm survival and sales. We will measure these outcomes using Administrative data from the bank for each client’s activity before and after receiving the credit intervention (e.g. card transactions, deposits, payroll, and loan applications and approvals).
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We will be working with potential and actual SME clients of a Colombian bank. Firms are divided in the following four eligible groups, with roughly 1,000 firms total:
i. Type 1: Clients from a previous credit campaign that received loans but may need loans again now.
ii. Type 2: Clients from a previous credit campaign who were not interested in loans then but may need loans now.
iii. Type 3: Firms which are at the credit score margin and thus were not considered for contact in any previous credit campaign.
iv. Type 4: Firms that are above the credit score margin, but have not been contacted in any previous credit campaign.

These firm types are used as a stratification variable in the randomization procedure. To avoid a sparse strata, we merge together Group 2 and Group 4, thus leaving us with 3 strata for this variable.

We also stratify by the number of months where clients made at least one deposit in 2020 (12 strata). Clients that did not make at least one deposit in 2020 were excluded from the experiment.

There are 59 SMEs that made their first deposits in 2021. For these clients, we only starify by the firm type, as we have no available transaction data to randomize in a similar fashion to firms who were clients since 2020 or earlier.

For the firms that are randomized into the treatment group, these will be offered the credit product by the bank via phone call, at which point they can express interest in receiving the loan. After a bank evaluation, these loans are approved and disbursed to the client. We will then receive administrative bank data for these clients to evaluate the outcomes of interest in the short and medium term.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization is done in a computer using Python software.
Randomization Unit
Firm
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
N/A
Sample size: planned number of observations
1,004 firms, we are working with our partner to expand the sample size as additional funds for guaranteed loans are made available.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
492 treatment firms, 512 control firms
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Office for the Protection of Human Subjects, UC Berkeley
IRB Approval Date
2021-03-18
IRB Approval Number
CPHS Protocol # 2021-03-14127
IRB Name
Northwestern University IRB
IRB Approval Date
2021-03-31
IRB Approval Number
STU00213968
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials