How Does Household Expenditure Respond to Inflation Expectations? Evidence from Randomized Information Treatments in Japan

Last registered on August 19, 2021

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
How Does Household Expenditure Respond to Inflation Expectations? Evidence from Randomized Information Treatments in Japan
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0008078
Initial registration date
August 16, 2021
Last updated
August 19, 2021, 10:12 AM EDT

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
Ehime University

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2021-03-01
End date
2021-03-04
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Exploiting exogenous variation in inflation expectations driven by randomized information treatments, we examine to what extent the inflation expectations influence the current household expenditure in Japan. We find that a rise in inflation expectations has a positive effect on the current household expenditure. In addition, our estimated intertemporal elasticity of substitution is large (about unity), suggesting that the intertemporal substitution plays an important role in our analysis.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Niizeki, Takeshi. 2021. "How Does Household Expenditure Respond to Inflation Expectations? Evidence from Randomized Information Treatments in Japan." AEA RCT Registry. August 19. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.8078-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2021-03-01
Intervention End Date
2021-03-04

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Inflation expectations, monthly household total expenditure
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We randomly divided the respondents into four group. The treatment group 1 was provided with the information on latest inflation rates. The treatment group 2 was provided with the information on fiscal package announcement with a budget of about 74 trillion yen by the government. The treatment group3 was provided with the information on latest gasoline price changes. The control group received no information.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
randomization conducted by INTAGE Inc.
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
Three treatment groups and one control group
Sample size: planned number of observations
6,000 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
1,500 individuals for each group
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Faculty of Law and Letters, Ehime University
IRB Approval Date
2021-02-04
IRB Approval Number
8

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Yes
Data Collection Completion Date
Final Sample Size: Number of Clusters (Unit of Randomization)
Was attrition correlated with treatment status?
Final Sample Size: Total Number of Observations
Final Sample Size (or Number of Clusters) by Treatment Arms
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials