Does Food Insecurity Hinder Migration? Experimental Evidence from the Indian Public Distribution System

Our intervention involves a single treatment group and a control group. Households in our treatment group will be read a script during the CMIE survey. The intervention will be delivered during surveys lasting from October to December 2021. The script includes basic information about the ONORC scheme, including that their ration allowance is portable across district and state lines, information on which states have joined the ONORC program by the time of the survey, information on the documents required to claim ration outside of their designated PDS shop, and information on government offices responsible for resolving ration access issues and the phone number of a government helpline dedicated to ration portability. The script will be read by a CMIE enumerator, and an information sheet will be left with the respondent. We will also provide these households with access to an information hotline, which they can call to obtain local information (phone numbers and/or addresses) on ration shops across 29 states. We processed and uploaded individual ration shop information to Mapbox and Google Earth so that hotline staff can search for ration shops within or near the caller’s locality of interest. The hotline will be staffed by research assistants, who can also answer basic questions about ration portability. Hotline access will last for 5 months after the beginning of the intervention (from October 2021 to March 2022).

2021-10-20

2021-12-31

Total emigration, family economic well-being

We will measure total emigration as the number of individuals who are either baseline or new emigrants. We will also report a dummy measure equal to 1 if any family member is a baseline or new emigrant. We will analyze an economic well-being index comprising secondary outcomes 6--11, constructed as in Anderson 2008.

Knowledge of ration portability, planned new emigration, new emigration, urban emigration, inter-state and inter-district emigration, family earned income, family total consumption, occupational upgrading, subjective financial well-being, food security, ration claiming, job search efforts, remittances.

See attached pre-analysis plan.

We will conduct our intervention with a subset of the survey sample covered by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), which has collected panel data on a nationally representative sample of approximately 170,000 households since 2014. We will add a module on PDS portability to CMIE's questionnaire for a random subset of their sample. This will enable us to conduct an information intervention and utilize the rich panel data that CMIE regularly collects on employment, migration, and welfare, at minimal cost and at a large scale.

Treatment status was assigned at the cluster level using a stratified permutation method. Strata were formed from the following features: state identifier, an urban dummy, a dummy for clusters with an above-median share of households that had sent an emigrant anywhere since 2017, and a dummy for clusters with an above-median poverty rate (defined as being below the 40th percentile of per-adult-equivalent household consumption). The Stata command randtreat was used, assigning misfits using the global method.

Clusters of CMIE's primary sampling units. A PSU roughly corresponds to a village in rural areas, and a town/city in urban areas.

Yes

Approximately 2,386 clusters

Approximately 71,453 households

Treatment: 1,186 clusters, 35,993 households
Control: 1,200 clusters, 35,460 households

at 90% power and 1% significance, our minimum detectable effect for the increase in the share of households with a migrant is about 1 percentage point off a base of 45% (std dev = 0.498). That is, we are powered to detect a change from 45% to 46% or higher. We do not yet have data to estimate the MDE for the well-being index. Instead, our minimum detectable effect for monthly per adult equivalent household consumption is 2.4 rupees on a base of 137 (about 2%, std dev = 76). Our minimum detectable effect for monthly per adult equivalent household income is 9.5 rupees on a base of 261 (about 4%, std dev = 287).

Pre-Analysis Plan