The ECB's 2021 Monetary Policy Reform in the Eyes of the German Population

Last registered on December 09, 2021

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
The ECB's 2021 Monetary Policy Reform in the Eyes of the German Population
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0008592
Initial registration date
November 19, 2021

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
November 21, 2021, 5:21 PM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
December 09, 2021, 3:27 AM EST

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
University of Marburg

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2021-12-10
End date
2021-12-22
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
In July 2021, the ECB decided to implement a new monetary policy strategy. Arguably, its two most important aspects are the introduction of a symmetric inflation target around 2% and the consideration of global warming in the conduct of its monetary policy. I am planning to run a representative survey on the German population, with the aim of measuring people's knowledge and attitude towards monetary policy and inflation. Within this survey of 2000 respondents, I would like to include an information treatment, which is based on providing information about (i) the new inflation target and (ii) the consideration of global warming. For this purpose, the respondents are randomly allocated to three groups (the groups treated with (i), (ii), and the control group). As control variables, I am planning to collect socio-demographic variables, economic and political variables, subjective and objective monetary policy knowledge, inflation perception and expectation, as well as attitudes towards monetary policy issues and global warming.
Some hypotheses:
A) Generally, information about the new monetary policy reduces people's trust in the ECB.
B) Generally, information about the new monetary policy reduces people's perception of the ECB's degree of independence.
C) Conditional on people's inflation perception and expectations, trust and independence are even more negatively influenced after information treatment (i).
D) Conditional on people's monetary policy knowledge, trust and independence are even more negatively influenced after information treatment (i).
E) Conditional on people's interest in monetary policy, trust and independence are even influenced differently after information treatment (i).
F) Conditional on people's concern about global warming, trust and independence are positively influenced after information treatment (ii).
G) The strength of the treatment effects depends on the sources people use to inform themselves about monetary policy and inflation.
H) The effectiveness of the treatment depends on people's perception of past and current as well as future inflation.

In addition to the analysis of the treatments, the project will study people's attitudes towards the ECB's monetary policy reform in a more descriptive form of investigation (e.g., answer frequencies, bivariate and multivariate associations).
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Hayo, Bernd. 2021. "The ECB's 2021 Monetary Policy Reform in the Eyes of the German Population." AEA RCT Registry. December 09. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.8592
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Within the survey of 2000 respondents, information treatments are included, which are based on providing information about (i) the new inflation target of the ECB and (ii) the consideration of global warming in the ECB's conduct of monetary policy. For this purpose, the respondents are randomly allocated to three groups (the groups treated with (i), (ii), and the control group).
Intervention Start Date
2021-12-10
Intervention End Date
2021-12-22

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The key intention of these treatments is to find out whether people's trust in the ECB as well as their perception of its independence from governments and other EU institutions is affected by the ECB's monetary policy strategy reform in 2021 (see hypotheses above).
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
This is a straightforward information treatment: I would like to measure whether people's responses to questions on central bank trust and independence are affected when reflecting on the two key changes in the ECB's monetary policy strategy.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization done by survey institute using a computer.
Randomization Unit
Individuals
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
3 groups of individuals.
Sample size: planned number of observations
2,000
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
665 survey respondents per group.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials