Memory, Trauma and Economic Behavior Among Refugees: Experimental Evidence from Teaching “Positive Visualization” in Ethiopia

Last registered on July 04, 2022

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Memory, Trauma and Economic Behavior Among Refugees: Experimental Evidence from Teaching “Positive Visualization” in Ethiopia
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0008934
Initial registration date
February 03, 2022

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
February 03, 2022, 5:59 PM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
July 04, 2022, 7:22 PM EDT

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
University of Oxford

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
London School of Economics and Political Science
PI Affiliation
Bocconi University
PI Affiliation
Addis Ababa University
PI Affiliation
University of Oxford

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2022-02-04
End date
2022-12-30
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
The economic inclusion of refugees is a challenge for host economy governments and development partners. While there is evidence that poor mental health can hold back the economic inclusion of refugees, little is known about potential low-cost and scalable interventions to overcome such ‘internal’ constraints, such as the effects of trauma on the ability to imagine the present or future. In this project, we use a survey among refugees in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, and a randomized trial of a high-intensity psychological program on “positive visualization” to study the role of these constraints. We hypothesize that learning to vividly and precisely imagine a positive present or future and to contrast negative memories from past traumatic experiences can help refugees take steps towards improving their economic livelihoods in the host economy. To shed light on mechanisms, we use a cross-randomized priming intervention and hypothesize that “positive visualization” improves the economic choices of participants by reducing their perceived background risk of daily economic choices.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Bryan, Gharad et al. 2022. "Memory, Trauma and Economic Behavior Among Refugees: Experimental Evidence from Teaching “Positive Visualization” in Ethiopia." AEA RCT Registry. July 04. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.8934-1.1
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Our main intervention consists of four weekly sessions of training in positive visualization. Each session is conducted one-on-one by a trainer with one participant and lasts about an hour. The intervention follows a predefined script, but also allows for individual reflections of participants with the trainer.

To shed light on the mechanism through which the treatment affects outcomes for participants, we cross-randomize a trauma priming intervention that has been used in the literature in psychology and economics. We adapt Callen et al.’s (2014) protocol to administer two primes just before asking subjects to make a risky investment choice. We ask one half of respondents: “We are interested in understanding your daily experiences that make you happy or joyous. This could be anything, for example birth of child, marriage of a relative, or success in your job. Could you describe an event in the past year that caused you happiness? (POSITIVE) and the other half of respondents a negative analogue (NEGATIVE): ““We are interested in understanding your daily experiences that may make you fearful or anxious. This could be anything, for example getting sick, experiencing violence, losing a job, etc. Could you describe one event in the past year that caused you fear or anxiety?”. The priming will be conducted at baseline and endline.
Intervention Start Date
2022-04-28
Intervention End Date
2022-07-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Our primary outcomes belong to three families:

1) Risk taking
1a) An unincentivized survey item adapted from the Global Preference Survey (Falk et al., 2018).
1b) An incentivized measure of risk aversion using the Gneezy-Potters-Charness investment task (Gneezy and Potters 1997, Charness and Gneezy 2010)

2) Memory recall
2a) Adapted versions of the autobiographical memory test (AMT, see Griffith et al., 2009), backward oriented, adapted to the Ethiopian context. For 5 different scenarios, we ask respondents to describe a specific memory that the scenario reminds them of. This question allows us to characterize a participant’s “memory database”, to link it to their economic behavior and to understand the effect of the intervention on it.

3) Future Visualization
3a) Adapted versions of the autobiographical memory test (AMT, see Griffith et al., 2009), future oriented, adapted to the Ethiopian context. For 5 different scenarios, we ask respondents to imagine a specific future event that is linked to the given scenario. This question allows us to characterize how the training changes future visualization by the participants.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
We classify the secondary outcomes in four families:

1) Employment outcomes: Job search, engagement in employment and/or self-employment
2) Income, consumption, and welfare: earnings, savings, consumption
3) Mental and physical health
3a) Cantril Ladder Life Satisfaction
3b) WHODAS Functioning Scale

To study the mechanisms of the intervention, we also measure:
1) Self-efficacy (from a 6-items Self Efficacy Scale)
2) Expectations of employment, earnings and movement conditional on receiving with a certain probability a permit to work in Ethiopia
3) Reservation wage
4) Reaction to negative and positive priming
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We conduct a field experiment that randomly varies treatments along two dimensions: (1) whether or not participants are offered to participate in the positive visualization sessions; and (2) whether participants are exposed to a positive or a negative priming intervention. The priming intervention is used at the baseline survey and repeated at the midline survey. We cross-randomize individuals into the positive or negative priming in the baseline and midline surveys. Randomization is stratified on gender.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization performed in the back office in Stata.
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
No clusters
Sample size: planned number of observations
1800 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Positive visualization treatment: 900 individuals (of which 450 in positive priming and 450 in negative priming)
Control: 900 individuals (of which 450 in positive priming and 450 in negative priming)
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
We can detect a standardized effect size of 0.13 (0.187) with 900 (450) participants in each group and power 0.80 without controlling for baseline variables. If we use ANCOVA, then the minimum detectable effect size is 0.10 standard deviations with 880 participants per treatment group. These calculations assume two post-intervention surveys and a conservative autocorrelation across surveys of 0.3.
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
University of Oxford
IRB Approval Date
2021-11-05
IRB Approval Number
ECONCIA21-22-23
IRB Name
London School of Economics and Political Science
IRB Approval Date
2021-12-20
IRB Approval Number
51684
IRB Name
We have additionally convened an ad hoc ethics advisory group with researchers at the College of Health Sciences, Addis Ababa University.
IRB Approval Date
2021-10-01
IRB Approval Number
N/A
Analysis Plan

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Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials