Expectations and Student Loan Forgiveness

Last registered on June 15, 2026

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Expectations and Student Loan Forgiveness
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0009151
Initial registration date
June 03, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
June 15, 2026, 5:41 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
University of Chicago

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
University of Chicago
PI Affiliation
University of Chicago

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2022-04-15
End date
2023-05-01
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Student loan forgiveness is hotly debated by policy-makers, with a range of proposals presenting ranging from full cancellation to no forgiveness. Expectations about student loan relief many affect borrowing, loan repayment behavior and consumption. We conduct a survey regarding expectations about student loan forgiveness, which is linked to consumption and credit bureau data. We randomize information regarding the likelihood of student loan forgiveness. Using administrative consumption and credit bureau data, we will study how consumption, borrowing and loan repayment respond to expectations about student loan forgiveness.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Koustas, Dmitri, Michael Weber and Constantine Yannelis. 2026. "Expectations and Student Loan Forgiveness." AEA RCT Registry. June 15. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.9151-1.0
Sponsors & Partners

Partner

Type
private_company

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We plan on surveying individuals about their beliefs regarding student loan forgiveness. We will also randomly provide information interventions, which will be news article regarding the likelihood of loan forgiveness.
Intervention (Hidden)
After obtaining consent, we will ask the following questions:

1. What is your student loan balance? (screener/validation question)
Have you ever taken out a student loan to help pay for your own education? This would exclude
loans you took out for any other person (e.g. ParentPLUS loans).
Yes
No [Screen out]

IF YES. Which of the following categories best describes the approximate amount of all your
student loans, both federal and/or private student loans, for both your undergraduate and/or
graduate education, that you owe for your own education as of today?

None ($0)
$1-4,999
$5,000-9,999
$10,000-14,999
$15,000-19,999
$20,000-29,999
$30,000-39,999
$40,000-49,999
$50,000-99,999
$100,000 or more
Don’t know
Prefer not to answer [Screen out]

2. You indicated that you took out student loans to pay for your own education. There are two
types of loans we are interested in:
• Federal student loans are issued or guaranteed by the federal government. They can be
subsidized or unsubsidized and never require a cosigner.
• Private student loans are borrowed from a private lender, such as a bank, institution, credit
union, or state, and usually require a co-signer. Have you ever taken out a federal student loan,
a private student loan, or have you taken out both?
Federal student loan only
Private student loan only
Both federal and private student loan
Don’t know
Prefer not to answer [Screen out]

3. In February 2020, prior to the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, do you remember what kind
of repayment plan you were enrolled in?
None, Still in school
Standard Repayment Plan: Make the same payment amount every month for 10 years
Graduated Repayment Plan: Payment amounts start low and increase every two years. Loans
are paid off within 10 years
Extended Repayment Plan: Make a payment amount every month for longer than 10 years
(up to 30 years)
Income-Driven Repayment Plan (IDR): Monthly payment amounts are tied to your income and
family size
None, Loans were in default
Don’t know

4. In March 2020, the federal government announced that federal student loan payments and
interest would be temporarily paused for most borrowers as part of the pandemic assistance
efforts and this “payment pause” is still in place.
Prior to this taking this survey, were you aware that the federal government paused payment
for most federal student loans?
Yes
No

5. During the payment pause related to the COVID-19 pandemic, have you continued to make
payments on your federal student loan(s)?
Yes, I am still required to make monthly payments
Yes, I voluntarily make full payments each month
Yes, I voluntarily make partial or full payments when I can, but not every month
No, I haven’t made any payments since payments were paused
Don’t know

6. If YES to 5. What kind of repayment plan are you currently enrolled in?
Standard Repayment Plan: Make the same payment amount every month for 10 years
Graduated Repayment Plan: Payment amounts start low and increase every two years. Loans
are paid off within 10 years
Extended Repayment Plan: Make a payment amount every month for longer than 10 years
(up to 30 years)
Income-Driven Repayment Plan (IDR): Monthly payment amounts are tied to your income and
family size
Don’t know

7. IF NO to 5. The current payment pause is expected to end in May 2022.
To what extent do you agree with the following statement: When student loan payments start
again in May 2022, I will be able to afford the same monthly amount that I was paying prior to
the payment pause related to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Strongly Agree
Agree
Neither agree nor disagree
Disagree
Strongly disagree

8. IF NO to 5. What do you think is the percent chance that the repayment pause will be
extended again beyond May 2022?
Slider from 1 to 100

9. What do you think is the percent chance that AT LEAST SOME of your student loan debt will
be forgiven
in the next year?
Slider from 1 to 100
in the next 2-5 years?
Slider from 1 to 100
in the next 5-10 years?
Slider from 1 to 100

10. What do you think is the percent chance that MOST of your student loan debt will be
forgiven
in the next year?
Slider from 1 to 100
in the next 2-5 years?
Slider from 1 to 100
in the next 5-10 years?
Slider from 1 to 100

11. Approximately how much savings do you have available in your bank accounts?
None ($0)
$1-4,999
$5,000-9,999
$10,000-14,999
$15,000-19,999
$20,000-29,999
$30,000-39,999
$40,000-49,999
$50,000-99,999
$100,000 or more
Don’t know
Prefer not answer
Intervention Start Date
2022-04-15
Intervention End Date
2022-05-01

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Consumption, student loan repayment, other loan originations.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Beliefs about future loan payments may affect borrowers' incentives both to make payments today, and substitute into other borrowing and consumption.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We will randomize information treatments, which will come from the media and public statements by politicians.
Experimental Design Details
We will include the following treatments. Borrowers will be shown tweets, or news articles from the following list:

Optimistic on forgiveness:
https://twitter.com/SenWarren/status/1463507709261660162
https://www.warren.senate.gov/newsroom/press-releases/warren-schumer-pressleycolleagues-president-biden-can-and-should-use-executive-action-to-cancel-up-to50000-in-federal-student-loan-debt-immediately
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/02/waiting-for-student-loan-forgiveness-what-to-doin-the-meantime-.html
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/03/04/student-loan-freezebiden/9381102002/
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/08/why-the-white-house-may-extend-the-paymentpause-for-student-borrowers.html

Pessimistic on forgiveness:
https://www.npr.org/2021/12/07/1062070001/student-loan-forgiveness-debtpresident-biden-campaign-promise
https://www.foxbusiness.com/personal-finance/americans-doubtful-biden-cancelstudent-loans-2022
https://time.com/nextadvisor/in-the-news/student-loan-forgiveness-likely-wonthappen/
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/02/biden-skips-student-loan-forgiveness-instate-of-the-union-address.html
https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/597377-tax-groups-urge-bidenadministration-to-end-pause-on-student-loan
Randomization Method
Randomization will be done either using a random number generator directly by the researchers, or using Qualtrics software.
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
Depending on the outcome, between 1,500-10,000. This will depend on response rates.
Sample size: planned number of observations
We hope to have 10,000 individuals in the credit bureau data, and 1,500 using the Numerator data. These numbers may be higher or lower depending on response rates.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Approximately 10,000 individuals using credit outcomes, 1,500 individuals using Numerator data.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Approximately 500 per treatment arm.
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
University of Chicago IRB
IRB Approval Date
2022-03-21
IRB Approval Number
IRB22-0465

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials