AEA RCT Registry

Trial Information

General Information

Title

Peer effects in the formation of macroeconomic expectations

RCT ID

AEARCTR-0009479

Initial registration date

May 22, 2022

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published

May 23, 2022, 7:24 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country

Germany

Region

Primary Investigator

Name

Niklas Potrafke

Affiliation

Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name

Lena Dräger

PI Affiliation

PI Name

Anina Harter

PI Affiliation

PI Name

Klaus Gründler

PI Affiliation

PI Name

Fabian Ruthardt

PI Affiliation

Additional Trial Information

Status

In development

Start date

2022-05-25

End date

2022-06-18

Keywords

Other

Additional Keywords

JEL code(s)

Secondary IDs

Prior work

This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.

Abstract

We examine peer effects in the formation of macroeconomic expectations. We design a large-scale international survey among 1500 experts working in 130 countries, asking about their expectations about inflation rates for the years 2022 (short-term expectations), 2023 (mid-term expectations), and 2026 (long-term expectations).

External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation

Dräger, Lena et al. 2022. "Peer effects in the formation of macroeconomic expectations." AEA RCT Registry. May 23. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.9479-1.0

Sponsors & Partners

Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)

Intervention Start Date

2022-06-08

Intervention End Date

2022-06-18

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)

inflation expectations

Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)

Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

We examine peer effects in the formation of macroeconomic expectations. We design a large-scale international survey among 1500 experts working in 130 countries, asking about their expectations about inflation rates for the years 2022 (short-term expectations), 2023 (mid-term expectations), and 2026 (long-term expectations).

Experimental Design Details

We examine peer effects in the formation of macroeconomic expectations. We design a large-scale international survey among 1500 experts working in 130 countries, asking about their expectations about inflation rates for the years 2022 (short-term expectations), 2023 (mid-term expectations), and 2026 (long-term expectations). The sample is randomly split into two waves. The first wave will be implemented between 25 May 2022 and 4 June 2022. The follow-up will run from 8 June 2022 to 18 June 2022. We generate information about macroeconomic expectations in the first wave which is used as information treatments in the second wave. We will use information of peers’ expected inflation rates and priorities of macroeconomic policies as information treatments.

Participants in the second wave are randomly split in control and treated experts. We will have four treatment arms. Individual treatment is also randomly assigned across experts. Treated experts receive information about the expected inflation rates and priorities of macroeconomic policies (low unemployment, high economic growth, low inflation, exchange rate stability) of their peers surveyed in the first wave. We disentangle information about average inflation rates and priorities of macroeconomic policies worldwide and in the region the individual expert is working in.

The hypothesis to be examined in the experiment is that there are peer effects in the formation of macroeconomic expectations. We expect experts that have been informed about the expectations of their peers to report expectations that are closer to the peers than experts in the control group. We also expect the effect to be stronger when experts are provided with information of peers in the geographic region of their host country rather than when being informed about the estimates of global peers. We also ask experts to give policy recommendations. We expect that those experts who receive the signal that inflation is a concern to their peers are more likely to recommend policy intervention of their central banks to tackle inflation.

Our survey also includes open-ended questions that elicit the narratives and subjective macroeconomic models of respondents. We examine whether peer effects also influence the way participants think about inflation.

Sample size: 1500 (expected number of respondents)

Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
750 experts (first wave)
150 control experts (second wave)
150 treated with expected inflation rates (world average)
150 treated with expected inflation rates (regional average)
150 treated with macroeconomic priorities (world average)
150 treated with expected macroeconomic priorities (regional average)

Randomization Method

randomization done in office by a computer

Randomization Unit

experts

Was the treatment clustered?

No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters

..

Sample size: planned number of observations

1500 experts

Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms

..

Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)

Supporting Documents and Materials

IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name

IRB Approval Date

IRB Approval Number

Analysis Plan

Peer effects in the formation of macroeconomic expectations

Pre-Trial

General Information

Locations

Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Registration Citation

Interventions

Primary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes

Experimental Design

Experiment Characteristics

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

Post-Trial

Study Withdrawal

Intervention

Data Publication

Program Files

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials