The Null Result Penalty

Last registered on June 06, 2022
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
The Null Result Penalty
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0009513
Initial registration date
May 30, 2022

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
June 06, 2022, 5:15 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
United States of America
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Christopher Roth
Affiliation
University of Warwick
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Ingar Haaland
PI Affiliation
PI Name
Felix Chopra
PI Affiliation
PI Name
Andreas Stegmann
PI Affiliation

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2022-04-26
End date
2022-05-12
Keywords
Other
Additional Keywords
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We examine how the evaluation of research studies in economics depends on
whether a study yielded a null result. Studies with null results are perceived to
be less publishable, of lower quality, less important, and less precisely estimated
than studies with significant results, even when holding constant all other study
features, including the precision of estimates. The null result penalty is of similar
magnitude among PhD students and journal editors. The penalty is larger when
experts predict a large effect and when statistical uncertainty is communicated
with p-values rather than standard errors. Our findings highlight the value of
pre-results review.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Chopra, Felix et al. 2022. "The Null Result Penalty." AEA RCT Registry. June 06. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.9513-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2022-04-26
Intervention End Date
2022-05-10

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Perceptions of publishability, quality, importance and precision.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
See the paper.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Computer
Randomization Unit
Respondent
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
480 in Experiment 1 and 95 in Experiment 2.
Sample size: planned number of observations
575
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
287 null treatment
288 non-null treatment
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials