Climate variability information and adaptation in Kenya

Last registered on June 26, 2022
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Climate variability information and adaptation in Kenya
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0009644
Initial registration date
June 23, 2022

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
June 26, 2022, 5:27 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Kenya
Region
Machakos

Primary Investigator

Name
Peter Babyenda
Affiliation
University of Nairobi
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2022-06-30
End date
2022-11-30
Keywords
Agriculture, Behavior, Environment & Energy, Firms & Productivity
Additional Keywords
Adaptation, household welfare, switching regression model, Uganda
JEL code(s)
C34, I31, Q54
Secondary IDs
BSITF Course
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Africa’s climate is warmer than it was 100 years ago and model-based predictions of future climate for the continent clearly suggest that this warming will continue and, in most scenarios, accelerate (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change , 2018). Therefore, the study examines how various information on climate variability can encourage farmers to adopt long-term adaptation mechanisms such as irrigation and also be able to differentiate short-term and long term potential adaptation strategies.

The study will be based on utility maximization theory where a representative farmer adopts a given climate variability adaptation mechanism that gives a higher net utility. In other words, a given farmer selects a climate change coping strategy given the relevant climate information based provided it gives him higher benefits. He or she compares among the strategies and selects the one with higher benefits. The study will take place in Machakos County, Kenya which is characterized by frequent occurrences of prolonged dry seasons, floods and landslides which adversely affect farming which is the primary source of welfare for the majority Kenyans. The results of this research will inform climate policies and initiatives that support farmer’s livelihoods and sustainability in Kenya, and more broadly in East Africa.

External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Babyenda, Peter. 2022. "Climate variability information and adaptation in Kenya." AEA RCT Registry. June 26. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.9644-1.0
Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Under this, the respondents will be given varying information on weather changes for Machakos County. One treatment group will be given historical annual information for Machakos county and the second treatment group will be given monthly weather forecasts for Machakos county for the year 2020 starting from January 2020. The control group, will be given unhelpful information on weather forecasts, they will be given information on the history of Machakos county. The treatment information will be accompanied with an audio explanation of the treatments.
Intervention Start Date
2022-07-26
Intervention End Date
2022-10-20

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Long term adaptation choice
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Each participant will be paid a maximum of Ksh. 50. The payment will determined by how the participant plays the game. That is the payoffs at the end of the game equals the amount of money that will be paid to the participant. The payments will be as follows:
a) No adaptation: Pay off (10/=)
b) Climate change tolerant seeds: Pay off (15/=)
c) Water harvesting: Pay off (20/=)
d) Practicing irrigation: Pay off (50/=)
e) Bodaboda business: Pay off (10/=)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Reaction to climate variability information.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
The above graph shows how much rainfall Machakos County has been receiving for the last 3O years. Rainfall information for 30 years indicates how much rainfall, rainy days and variations the area will receive for a long time. Years 1978, 1992, 1991, 2002 and 2009 received the highest amounts of rain as compared to other years such as 1979, 1993, 1995and 2008 received the lowest amount of rain. During these years, farmers suffered losses and there was famine. Farmers were more poor. This made some farmers to start practicing some mechanisms to enable them protect themselves from dangers of limited rain. Therefore, as farmers, we learn that rainfall distribution can never be uniform throughout the year and over years. Some months or years receive more rainfall than others and this could have an effect on the maize growth hence farmer need to do something if they are to improve on their maize farming which requires higher amounts of rainfall.

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Under this, the respondents will be given varying information on weather changes for Machakos County. One treatment group will be given historical annual information for Machakos county and the second treatment group will be given monthly weather forecasts for Machakos county for the year 2020 starting from January 2020. The control group, will be given unhelpful information on weather forecasts, they will be given information on the history of Machakos county. The treatment information will be accompanied with an audio explanation of the treatments.
Experimental Design Details
The payment will be determined by payoffs from the incentivized game. The maximum amount of money is Ksh. 50. The choice of an adaption strategy informs the amount to be paid to the participant. This follows the utility maximization theory that a farmer adopts a given adaption mechanism basing on the net utility he or she obtains from the given adaption strategy selected.
Randomization Method
randomization done in office by a computer.
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
1000 individuals
Sample size: planned number of observations
10000, 5000 Treatment group and 5000 control group
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
5000
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
0.05
Supporting Documents and Materials

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IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Maseno Univeristy Ethics Review Committee
IRB Approval Date
2020-09-07
IRB Approval Number
MSSSSSSU/DRP1/MUERC/00866/20
Analysis Plan

Analysis Plan Documents

Pre-analysis Plan

MD5: 7a78bcbe2e7a2e293a71ef12a02f8099

SHA1: f0bfa5e8c812bef3a6e9beba4682cbaa070b3a95

Uploaded At: June 23, 2022

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials