News of disinflation and firms' expectations

Last registered on August 03, 2022

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
News of disinflation and firms' expectations
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0009820
Initial registration date
July 28, 2022

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
August 03, 2022, 2:15 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
Banco Central del Uruguay

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
Banco Central del Uruguay
PI Affiliation
University of California, Berkeley

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2020-10-01
End date
2021-12-31
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We causally identify how firms' inflation and growth expectations respond to information about a comprehensive reform in the monetary policy framework by means of a randomized control trial. The reform is intended to lower inflation significantly in the coming years, making this experiment unique relative to previous ones that are carried out in stable and consolidated monetary policy frameworks. Firms treated with information about the reform lower their inflation and cost expectations by about 0.5 percentage points, with the effect being persistent sixth months after the treatment. Treated firms also expect temporarily lower GDP growth.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Caruso, Martín, Miguel Mello and Jorge Ponce. 2022. "News of disinflation and firms' expectations." AEA RCT Registry. August 03. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.9820
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2021-06-01
Intervention End Date
2021-06-30

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The effect of the treatment, i.e. news about disinflation, on firms' inflation expectations.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The sample of an inflation expectation survey to firms was randomly split into two groups. The treated group receives a piece of information about a change in the monetary policy framework aimed to reduce inflation permanently. Responses about firms' inflation expectations were used to causally assess the impact of the treatment on inflation expectations.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization done in office by a computer.
Randomization Unit
Firms.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
2 groups of firms.
Sample size: planned number of observations
293 firms.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
122 treated firms, 171 control firms.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials