Public debt and household inflation expectations

Last registered on March 13, 2023

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Public debt and household inflation expectations
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0011082
Initial registration date
March 13, 2023

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
March 13, 2023, 3:36 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Region
Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
BIS

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
International Monetary Fund

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2022-11-23
End date
2022-12-02
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We use randomized controlled trials in the US, UK, and Brazil to examine the causal effect of public debt on household inflation expectations. We find that people underestimate public debt levels and increase inflation expectations when informed about the correct levels. The extent of the revisions is proportional to the size of the information surprise. Confidence in the central bank considerably reduces the sensitivity of inflation expectations to public debt. We also show that people associate high public debt with stagflationary effects and that the sensitivity of inflation expectations to public debt is considerably higher for women and low-income individuals.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Grigoli, Francesco and Damiano Sandri. 2023. "Public debt and household inflation expectations." AEA RCT Registry. March 13. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.11082-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2022-11-23
Intervention End Date
2022-12-02

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The study examines how people revise inflation expectations when informed about the current levels of public debt.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We use randomized controlled trials in the US, UK, and Brazil to examine the causal effect of public debt on household inflation expectations. We provide the treated group with information about current levels of public debt in percent of GDP. No such information is provided to the control group.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
The randomization is performed by the survey company, YouGov.
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
no clusters
Sample size: planned number of observations
2000 individuals for each country
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
1000 individuals by treatment group
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials