Do Consumers Believe in an Inverse Phillips Curve? Evidence from the US and South Africa

Last registered on December 01, 2023
View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Do Consumers Believe in an Inverse Phillips Curve? Evidence from the US and South Africa
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0012206
Initial registration date
November 16, 2023

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
December 01, 2023, 4:19 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
United States of America
Region
Country
South Africa
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Lovisa Reiche
Affiliation
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2023-12-01
End date
2024-01-31
Keywords
Behavior, Gender, Labor, Other
Additional Keywords
Macroeconomic Beliefs
JEL code(s)
E24, E31, J16
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Consumer surveys in rich economies reveal a positive correlation between unemployment and inflation expectations, consistent with a supply-side narrative. I explore this correlation further by (a) developing a novel experimental design that allows me to elicit the average elasticity of unemployment expectations in response to inflation expectation changes, (b) measuring how behavior in the labor market changes in response to increasing or decreasing inflation expectations caused by unspecified, supply or demand shocks and (c) measuring whether this response differs between men and women.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Reiche, Lovisa. 2023. "Do Consumers Believe in an Inverse Phillips Curve? Evidence from the US and South Africa." AEA RCT Registry. December 01. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.12206-1.0
Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Survey using hypothetical vignettes.
Intervention Start Date
2023-12-01
Intervention End Date
2024-01-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The elasticity of unemployment expectations and wage bargaining to inflation expectations.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
This will be computed as coefficient in a regression of percentage deviation in inflation on percentage change in unemployment expectation/percentage chance to bargain.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
1. Difference between men and women
2. Difference across different scenarios
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
1. Is measured as coefficient on the interaction term with female dummy
2. Is measured using within-subject design.

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The survey uses hypothetical vignettes to estimate the effect of changes in inflation expectations on excpectations about unemployment and growth as well as macroeconomic behaviors. Participants are asked for their prior inflation, unemployment and growth expectations and are then presented with different scenarios that move expectations away from their baseline about inflation. Treatments are in 2x6 factorial design, either moving up or down and then one of 6 treatment arms which present 3 scenarios (potential causes) in all possible order combinations. Expectations are then reelicited.

Experimental Design Details
Treatment arms:
up: increase expectations by a random factor in U((1,2])
down: decrease expectations by a random factor in U([0,1))

1: open - demand - supply
2: open - supply - demand
3: demand - open - supply
4: demand - supply - open
5: supply - open - demand
6: supply - demand - open
Randomization Method
Randomization done by a computer.
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
approx. 1200 individuals in each country
Sample size: planned number of observations
approx. 1200 individuals in each country
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
approx. 100 individuals
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials

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IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Department’s Research Ethics Committee (DREC), Department of Economics at the University of Oxford
IRB Approval Date
2023-10-13
IRB Approval Number
ECONCIA23-24-03
Analysis Plan

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Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials