Inflation preferences

Last registered on April 28, 2024
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Inflation preferences
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0012706
Initial registration date
January 12, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
January 19, 2024, 1:56 PM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
April 28, 2024, 9:00 AM EDT

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Country
United States of America
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Kristian Myrseth
Affiliation
University of York
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Alexander Dietrich
PI Affiliation
Danmarks Nationalbank
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PI Name
Hassan Afrouzi
PI Affiliation
Columbia University
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PI Name
Raphael Schoenle
PI Affiliation
Brandeis University
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PI Name
Romanos Priftis
PI Affiliation
European Central Bank
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Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2024-02-19
End date
2024-03-15
Keywords
Behavior
Additional Keywords
Household expectations, Survey, Inflation preferences
JEL code(s)
C83, E31, E52
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We are launching a survey that elicits consumer preferences over inflation. The survey embeds an RCT, featuring five information treatments and one control group. The survey also includes questions that explore potential rationales for preferences expressed; vignettes--wherein random numbers for long-run inflation are presented--that elicit preferences in hypothetical contexts; and a task that confronts respondents with a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and stabilizing unemployment.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Afrouzi, Hassan et al. 2024. "Inflation preferences." AEA RCT Registry. April 28. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.12706-2.1
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)

Our RCT features five information treatments, administered between subjects:

T1 Friedman.
T2 ELB.
T3 Firms.
T4 Wages.
T5 Assets.

Following the main interventions, we present respondents with economic vignettes, which provide a random, hypothetical number for future long run inflation. The vignettes elicit respondents' expectations for economic variables and expected changes in their own economic behavior.
Intervention Start Date
2024-02-19
Intervention End Date
2024-03-15

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
We have two primary outcome variables:
1. Individual-level inflation preferences elicited following the interventions.
2. The individual-level difference between inflation preferences elicited prior to the intervention and preferences elicited following the intervention.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
People are asked to assign a relative weight on both objectives within the dual mandate of the Fed (price stability and maximum employment).
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design

We plan to administer a nationally representative survey of US respondents. Our survey elicits inflation preferences at two different points. The first elicitation precedes an RCT component, which presents one of six information treatments (including control). The second preference elicitation follows the RCT. The survey also includes questions that explore potential rationales for preferences expressed; vignettes that elicit preferences in hypothetical contexts; and a task that confronts respondents with a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and stabilizing unemployment.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization function embedded in Qualtrics survey platform.
Randomization Unit
Individual survey respondent.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
3500 individual respondents.
Sample size: planned number of observations
3500 individual respondents.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Control group: 1000 respondents.

Five treatment groups, 500 respondents each:
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
The Brandeis IRB, operating under Federalwide Assurance #FWA00004408
IRB Approval Date
2023-12-11
IRB Approval Number
#23096R-E
IRB Name
Columbia Human Research Protection Office, Institutional Review Boards
IRB Approval Date
2023-12-20
IRB Approval Number
IRB-AAAU7603
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
Yes
Intervention Completion Date
March 09, 2024, 12:00 +00:00
Data Collection Complete
Yes
Data Collection Completion Date
March 09, 2024, 12:00 +00:00
Final Sample Size: Number of Clusters (Unit of Randomization)
Was attrition correlated with treatment status?
No
Final Sample Size: Total Number of Observations
3520

(Where one observation in the dataset, provided by Qualtrics, lacked information about the treatment arm to which it was assigned.)
Final Sample Size (or Number of Clusters) by Treatment Arms
Control: 1002 T1: 505 T2: 501 T3: 501 T4: 505 T5: 505 One observation in the dataset, provided by Qualtrics, lacked information about the treatment arm to which it was assigned.
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials