Hand-to-mouth agents and durable consumption

Last registered on January 19, 2024
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Hand-to-mouth agents and durable consumption
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0012835
Initial registration date
January 16, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
January 19, 2024, 2:15 PM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
United States of America
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Esteban Verdugo
Affiliation
University of Michigan
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Mathieu Pedemonte
PI Affiliation
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2023-11-21
End date
2024-01-19
Keywords
Behavior
Additional Keywords
Macroeconomics, Inflation Expectations, Consumption
JEL code(s)
C83, D84, E21, E31
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This study will try to understand the possible heterogeneous consumption response of "hand-to-mouth" and non-"hand-to-mouth" agents to publicly available information on actual inflation and inflation expectations. Using a repeated cross-sectional U.S. representative survey, we plan to get information on respondents that allows us to study their "hand-to-mouth" condition. Moreover, we plan to implement different information treatments to randomly selected subsets of each category of respondents and affect their inflation expectations about different varieties of goods corresponding to services, non-durable, semi-durable, and durable products. The differential effects of these information treatments will allow us to identify exogenous variations in the perceived inflation level of households. With hypothetical follow-up questions, we will obtain information regarding the spending plan for the different consumption categories and characterize the extent to which different expectations imply differences in the spending decision on the various goods categories.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Pedemonte, Mathieu and Esteban Verdugo. 2024. "Hand-to-mouth agents and durable consumption." AEA RCT Registry. January 19. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.12835-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We consider two information treatments, one based on past inflation and another one based on inflation forecasts made by professional forecasters. Moreover, we include a placebo and a control group.
Intervention Start Date
2023-11-21
Intervention End Date
2024-01-19

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Inflation expectations of heterogeneous households and their consumption responses across different consumption categories.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
First, we plan to get information to study respondents' "hand-to-mouth" condition. After that, we will implement different information treatments to randomly selected subsets of each category of respondents and affect their inflation expectations. The differential effects of these information treatments will allow us to identify exogenous variations in the perceived inflation level of households. With hypothetical follow-up questions, we will obtain information regarding the spending plan for the different consumption categories, and characterize the extent to which different expectations imply differences in the spending decision on the various goods categories. We plan to study the existence of heterogeneous responses between "hand-to-mouth" and non-"hand-to-mouth" respondents.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
The randomization process is done by a computer.
Randomization Unit
Individual level.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
No clusters.
Sample size: planned number of observations
Around 1,000 observations per group (treatment, control, and placebo groups). Therefore, around 4,000 observations in total.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Around 1,000 observations per group (treatment, control, and placebo groups).
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials