Planning for Which Future? Understanding Micro-Entrepreneurs’ Expectations - Follow-Up

Last registered on July 01, 2024
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Planning for Which Future? Understanding Micro-Entrepreneurs’ Expectations - Follow-Up
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0013917
Initial registration date
July 01, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
July 01, 2024, 1:16 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Tanzania, United Republic of
Region
Dar es Salaam

Primary Investigator

Name
Adrien Dautheville
Affiliation
Norwegian School of Economics
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2024-03-08
End date
2025-08-31
Keywords
Behavior, Firms & Productivity, Lab
Additional Keywords
Beliefs, Job Search
JEL code(s)
C93;D03;D21;D83;D84;J64;O17;O12
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial is based on or builds upon one or more prior RCTs.
Abstract
This project will investigate the dynamics of micro-entrepreneurs' expectations and business decisions. Like many other Sub-Saharan countries, the Tanzanian job market is very constrained, with few salaried jobs available. This is not improving: the youth's transition into formal salaried employment remains stagnant, mirroring the employment patterns of previous generations. At the same time, education access has developed widely. The young generation today can see that they have more education than their parent’s generation, while their exposure and knowledge of the job market are limited.

In this context, young workers forced into self-employment might both aspire and expect to transition to a stable paid job. Such expectations are likely to divert resources and efforts from business development toward job search.

The first goal of this project is to identify and measure the potential over-optimism of micro-entrepreneurs about their likelihood of transitioning into a salaried position. Then, using a lab-in-the-field information treatment, I will causally estimate the effect of accurate information on beliefs updating, business investments and job search, business outcomes and job finding.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Dautheville, Adrien. 2024. "Planning for Which Future? Understanding Micro-Entrepreneurs’ Expectations - Follow-Up." AEA RCT Registry. July 01. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.13917-1.0
Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention Start Date
2024-03-08
Intervention End Date
2024-03-22

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
- Business investments
- Business outcomes
- Job search investments
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
- Job search outcomes
- Respondents' labor market expectations
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The study will survey Tanzanian micro-entrepreneurs, recruited on Markets in Dar es Salaam area. The sample will consist of 900 market traders, selected to be younger than 30 years old, and owner of their business. They will be sample over 20 to 30 market in Dar es Salaam.

Participants will be invited to REPOA’s headquarters to partake in a lab session where they will complete a survey. To tackle issues of transportation barriers and incentivize participation, we will provide a stipend and arrange transportation for the respondents, drawing on REPOAS’s successful precedents from similar studies.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
randomization done by a computer directly by ODK collect app
Randomization Unit
inidividual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
900
Sample size: planned number of observations
900
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
450
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering) The sample size is chosen to ensure robust statistical power while balancing logistical feasibility. The proposed design allows the detection of an effect size of 0.2 standard deviations with a probability of 80%, using a standard 0.05 statistical significance. This allows for 12% (random) attrition between the baseline survey and the follow-up.
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
NHH Norwegian School of Economics Institutional Review Board (NHH IRB)
IRB Approval Date
2022-08-16
IRB Approval Number
NHH-IRB 42/22
Analysis Plan

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