Inflation Preferences II

Last registered on February 07, 2025
View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Inflation Preferences II
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0014127
Initial registration date
August 11, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
August 14, 2024, 2:43 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
February 07, 2025, 7:22 AM EST

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Country
United States of America
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Kristian Myrseth
Affiliation
University of York
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Alexander Dietrich
PI Affiliation
PI Name
Hassan Afrouzi
PI Affiliation
PI Name
Romanos Priftis
PI Affiliation
PI Name
Raphael Schoenle
PI Affiliation

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2024-08-13
End date
2024-09-27
Keywords
Behavior
Additional Keywords
Household expectations, Survey, Inflation preferences
JEL code(s)
C83, E31, E52
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial is based on or builds upon one or more prior RCTs.
Abstract
This study aims to replicate and extend some key results from AEARCTR-0012706, a survey that elicits consumer preferences over inflation. The survey embeds an RCT, featuring one information treatment and one control group, in addition to treatments that vary response modes and demand effects. The survey also includes a task that confronts respondents with a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and unemployment, followed by measures of various economic preference parameters.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Afrouzi, Hassan et al. 2025. "Inflation Preferences II." AEA RCT Registry. February 07. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.14127-1.1
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)

Our RCT features one control condition and nine treatments, administered between subjects in a nested design:
T1. Control: original elicitation of inflation preferences
T2. Original elicitation, negative demand-effect treatment for prior
T3. Original elicitation, positive demand-effect treatment for prior
T4. Original elicitation, negative demand-effect treatment for posterior
T5. Original elicitation, positive demand-effect treatment for posterior
T6. Original elicitation, information treatment
T7. Original elicitation, information treatment, negative demand-effect treatment for posterior
T8. Original elicitation, information treatment, positive demand-effect treatment for posterior
T9. Elicitation of inflation preferences with binned options that exclude zero.
T10. Elicitation of inflation preferences with write-in response mode.

Following the treatments, respondents will indicate their preferred trade-off between stabilizing inflation and stabilizing unemployment and their views on political economy. Subsequently, the survey will measure numeracy and financial literacy, after which it will elicit a range of economic preference parameters--including risk aversion, loss aversion, and time preferences.
Intervention (Hidden)

T1.
This is the control condition. It replicates the elicitation procedure from our first study, AEARCTR-0012706. Inflation preferences are elicited at two points in the survey, a 'prior' measure and a 'posterior.'

T2.
Same elicitation as T1, but includes a treatment that induces a negative demand effect preceding the prior elicitation:

"The next question asks about your preference over inflation.

We expect that participants who are shown these instructions will prefer less inflation than they normally would."

T3.
Same elicitation as T1, but includes a treatment that induces a positive demand effect preceding the prior elicitation:

"The next question asks about your preference over inflation.

We expect that participants who are shown these instructions will prefer more inflation than they normally would."

T4.
Same elicitation as T1, but includes a treatment that induces a negative demand effect preceding the posterior elicitation:

"The next question asks about your preference over inflation.

We expect that participants who are shown these instructions will prefer less inflation than they normally would."

T5.
Same elicitation as T1, but includes a treatment that induces a positive demand effect preceding the posterior elicitation:

"The next question asks about your preference over inflation.

We expect that participants who are shown these instructions will prefer more inflation than they normally would."

T6.
Same elicitation as T1, but includes an information treatment, which replicates 'T4 Wages' from AEARCTR-0012706:

"When prices increase over time (inflation), worker’s wages may not immediately increase in proportion.

Inflation, therefore, lowers the amount of goods and services that workers can buy with their wages.

By keeping inflation low, workers can buy a similar amount of goods and services over time."

T7.
Same elicitation as T1, with the information treatment from T6, but including a treatment from T4 that induces a negative demand effect preceding the posterior elicitation.

T8.
Same elicitation as T1, with the information treatment from T6, but including a treatment from T5 that induces a positive demand effect preceding the posterior elicitation.

T9.
Same elicitation as T1, except that the option to answer 'zero' is removed.

T10.
Same elicitation as T9, except that the response mode for the quantitative answer is write-in, as opposed to selecting a bin.
Intervention Start Date
2024-08-13
Intervention End Date
2024-09-27

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
We have two primary outcome variables:
1. Individual-level inflation preferences (priors and posteriors).
2. The difference between individual-level prior and posterior inflation preferences.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
People are asked to assign a relative weight on both objectives within the dual mandate of the Fed (price stability and maximum employment).
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design

This study aims to replicate and extend key results from AEARCTR-0012706, a survey that elicits consumer preferences over inflation. The survey embeds an RCT, featuring one control condition and nine treatments, administered between subjects in a nested design: one information treatment in addition to treatments that vary response modes and demand effects. Following the treatments, respondents will indicate their preferred trade-off between stabilizing inflation and stabilizing unemployment, as well as their views on political economy. Subsequently, the survey will measure numeracy and financial literacy, after which it will elicit a range of economic preference parameters--including risk aversion, loss aversion, and time preferences.

Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization function embedded in Qualtrics survey platform.
Randomization Unit
Individual survey respondent.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
N/A.
Sample size: planned number of observations
5000 individual respondents.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
T1: 910 respondents
T2-10: 455 respondents
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
The Brandeis IRB, operating under Federalwide Assurance #FWA00004408
IRB Approval Date
2024-08-01
IRB Approval Number
#23096R-E
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
Yes
Intervention Completion Date
September 27, 2024, 12:00 +00:00
Data Collection Complete
Yes
Data Collection Completion Date
September 27, 2024, 12:00 +00:00
Final Sample Size: Number of Clusters (Unit of Randomization)
N/A
Was attrition correlated with treatment status?
No
Final Sample Size: Total Number of Observations
5,007
Final Sample Size (or Number of Clusters) by Treatment Arms
Our RCT features one control condition and nine treatments, administered between subjects in a nested design: T1. Control: original elicitation of inflation preferences [n = 908] T2. Original elicitation, negative demand-effect treatment for prior [n = 440] T3. Original elicitation, positive demand-effect treatment for prior [n = 465] T4. Original elicitation, negative demand-effect treatment for posterior [n = 459] T5. Original elicitation, positive demand-effect treatment for posterior [n = 437] T6. Original elicitation, information treatment [n = 472] T7. Original elicitation, information treatment, negative demand-effect treatment for posterior [n = 466] T8. Original elicitation, information treatment, positive demand-effect treatment for posterior [n = 475] T9. Elicitation of inflation preferences with binned options that exclude zero [n = 445] T10. Elicitation of inflation preferences with write-in response mode [n = 440]
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials