Inflation Preferences II

Last registered on August 14, 2024
View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Inflation Preferences II
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0014127
Initial registration date
August 11, 2024

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
August 14, 2024, 2:43 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
United States of America
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Kristian Myrseth
Affiliation
University of York
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Alexander Dietrich
PI Affiliation
PI Name
Hassan Afrouzi
PI Affiliation
PI Name
Romanos Priftis
PI Affiliation
PI Name
Raphael Schoenle
PI Affiliation

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2024-08-13
End date
2024-09-17
Keywords
Behavior
Additional Keywords
Household expectations, Survey, Inflation preferences
JEL code(s)
C83, E31, E52
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial is based on or builds upon one or more prior RCTs.
Abstract
This study aims to replicate and extend some key results from AEARCTR-0012706, a survey that elicits consumer preferences over inflation. The survey embeds an RCT, featuring one information treatment and one control group, in addition to treatments that vary response modes and demand effects. The survey also includes a task that confronts respondents with a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and unemployment, followed by measures of various economic preference parameters.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Afrouzi, Hassan et al. 2024. "Inflation Preferences II." AEA RCT Registry. August 14. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.14127-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)

Our RCT features one control condition and nine treatments, administered between subjects in a nested design:
T1. Control: original elicitation of inflation preferences
T2. Original elicitation, negative demand-effect treatment for prior
T3. Original elicitation, positive demand-effect treatment for prior
T4. Original elicitation, negative demand-effect treatment for posterior
T5. Original elicitation, positive demand-effect treatment for posterior
T6. Original elicitation, information treatment
T7. Original elicitation, information treatment, negative demand-effect treatment for posterior
T8. Original elicitation, information treatment, positive demand-effect treatment for posterior
T9. Elicitation of inflation preferences with binned options that exclude zero.
T10. Elicitation of inflation preferences with write-in response mode.

Following the treatments, respondents will indicate their preferred trade-off between stabilizing inflation and stabilizing unemployment and their views on political economy. Subsequently, the survey will measure numeracy and financial literacy, after which it will elicit a range of economic preference parameters--including risk aversion, loss aversion, and time preferences.
Intervention Start Date
2024-08-13
Intervention End Date
2024-09-17

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
We have two primary outcome variables:
1. Individual-level inflation preferences (priors and posteriors).
2. The difference between individual-level prior and posterior inflation preferences.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
People are asked to assign a relative weight on both objectives within the dual mandate of the Fed (price stability and maximum employment).
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design

This study aims to replicate and extend key results from AEARCTR-0012706, a survey that elicits consumer preferences over inflation. The survey embeds an RCT, featuring one control condition and nine treatments, administered between subjects in a nested design: one information treatment in addition to treatments that vary response modes and demand effects. Following the treatments, respondents will indicate their preferred trade-off between stabilizing inflation and stabilizing unemployment, as well as their views on political economy. Subsequently, the survey will measure numeracy and financial literacy, after which it will elicit a range of economic preference parameters--including risk aversion, loss aversion, and time preferences.

Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization function embedded in Qualtrics survey platform.
Randomization Unit
Individual survey respondent.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
N/A.
Sample size: planned number of observations
5000 individual respondents.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
T1: 910 respondents
T2-10: 455 respondents
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
The Brandeis IRB, operating under Federalwide Assurance #FWA00004408
IRB Approval Date
2024-08-01
IRB Approval Number
#23096R-E
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials