Interest rate expectations and household decision-making

Last registered on February 25, 2025
View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Interest rate expectations and household decision-making
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0015436
Initial registration date
February 24, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
February 25, 2025, 10:50 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Johannes Fischer
Affiliation
Deutsche Bundesbank
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Christoph Herler
PI Affiliation
Bank of England
PI Name
Philip Schnattinger
PI Affiliation
Bank of England

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-02-25
End date
2025-03-19
Keywords
Behavior, Finance & Microfinance
Additional Keywords
Interest rates, inflation, consumption, household finance, labour mobility
JEL code(s)
E21, E24, E52, C83, D84
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We use a household survey in the UK to investigate the effects of interest rate expectations on households' decisions. After eliciting respondents' prior perceptions and expectations about interest rates in the UK, we randomly assign them to different information treatments about current and expected interest rates. Provided the treatments are effective, they generate exogenous variation in the interest rate expectations of households. Following the treatment, we investigate whether respondents update their interest rate expectations and if they affect other variables of interest, including expected spending, inflation expectations, job search intensity, labour mobility, and others.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Fischer, Johannes, Christoph Herler and Philip Schnattinger. 2025. "Interest rate expectations and household decision-making." AEA RCT Registry. February 25. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.15436-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2025-02-25
Intervention End Date
2025-03-19

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Consumer spending, job search intensity, labour mobility
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Step 1: Elicit priors about interest rates
Step 2: Randomly selected households receive information about publicly available data on interest rates
Step 3: Elicit posteriors about interest rates
Step 4: Measure outcomes
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization done in office by a computer
Randomization Unit
Survey respondent
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
~6,000 respondents
Sample size: planned number of observations
~6,000 respondents
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
~1,000 respondents per treatment arm
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

There is information in this trial unavailable to the public. Use the button below to request access.

Request Information

Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials