How does the inflation experience affect inflation expectations?

Last registered on May 21, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
How does the inflation experience affect inflation expectations?
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0016045
Initial registration date
May 19, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
May 21, 2025, 3:48 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Czechia
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Jaromír Baxa
Affiliation
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Stepan Jurajda
PI Affiliation
CERGE-EI
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-05-22
End date
2025-06-20
Keywords
Other
Additional Keywords
Inflation expectations, inflation, monetary policy
JEL code(s)
E31, E52
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We study the impact of perceived post-pandemic inflation on inflation expectations and their anchoring on a household panel regularly surveyed since 2021. The treatment group will be provided with information about the central bank's projected inflation.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Baxa, Jaromír and Stepan Jurajda. 2025. "How does the inflation experience affect inflation expectations?." AEA RCT Registry. May 21. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16045-1.0
Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention (Hidden)
Information treatment: According to the latest forecast by the Czech National Bank, inflation will most likely be 2.5% in December 2025.
Intervention Start Date
2025-05-22
Intervention End Date
2025-06-20

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Difference between perceived (pre-treatment) and expected (post-treatment) inflation between the treatment and control group.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Longitudial panel, N>1300. One treatment group - information treatment. Control group - no treatment.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization in office by computer.
Randomization Unit
Individual.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
1300 individuals from individual households.
Sample size: planned number of observations
1300 individuals from individual households.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
650
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials