Intervention (Hidden)
Information treatments:
Group 1 – Treatment 1 – current inflation
"People's personal experience of prices may differ from the official index, which includes the average for the economy as a whole. For information, the official index of price increases over the past 12 months expressed as a percentage is 2.7%. Your previous estimate and your subsequent answers will help us understand how people form expectations."
Group 2 – Treatment 2 – current inflation + CNB expected inflation 1Y ahead.
"People's personal experience of prices may differ from the official index, which includes the average for the economy as a whole. For information, the official index of price increases over the past 12 months expressed as a percentage is 2.7%. For your information, the Czech National Bank expects inflation to be 2.3% in 2026."
Group 3 – Treatment 3 – current inflation and the central bank’s inflation target
"People's personal experience with prices may differ from the official index, which includes the average for the economy as a whole. The official index of price increases over the last 12 months expressed as a percentage is 2.7%. This is within the tolerance band of the central bank's inflation target, which is set at 2% per year, with possible deviations in the range between 1 - 3% per year."
Group 4 – Treatment 4 – current inflation and the central bank board’s past decision
"People's personal experiences with prices may differ from the official index, which includes the average for the economy as a whole. The official index of price increases over the last 12 months expressed as a percentage is 2.7%. The Council of the Czech National Bank therefore left interest rates at their current level at its August meeting. Your earlier estimate and your subsequent answers will help us understand how people form expectations."
Group 5 – Treatment 5 – current inflation, target, past decision, and central bank uncertainty
"People's personal experience of prices may differ from the official index, which includes the average for the economy as a whole. The official index of price increases over the past 12 months, expressed as a percentage, is 2.7%. This is within the tolerance band of the central bank's inflation target, which is set at 2% per year, with possible deviations in the range of 1-3% per year. Your earlier estimate and your subsequent answers will help us understand how people form expectations.
In this context, we would like to inform you that the Czech National Bank (ČNB) influences the inflation rate primarily through interest rates. With regard to inflation in the tolerance band around the target and the favorable inflation outlook for next year, at its last meeting in August, the CNB Board decided to leave interest rates at the same level as the previous month. The two-week repo rate thus remains at 3.5%. The Bank Board assessed the risks and uncertainties of the outlook for meeting the inflation target as pro-inflationary in aggregate, but assures the public that the CNB's steps will be sufficient to maintain price stability in accordance with the statutory mandate. According to the CNB Governor, the Bank Board is also prepared to respond adequately to any risks to the outlook for meeting the inflation target."
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Alternative questions about optimal monetary policy:
17a) Compared to the beginning of 2020, prices in the economy have increased by about 40% on average. Which statement most closely matches your preference for the coming years?
(a) Keep prices at about today's level (zero inflation).
(b) Let prices grow at a rate of about 1-3% per year (CNB target).
(c) Reduce prices somewhat (not necessarily to pre-2020 levels).
(d) Reduce prices to pre-2020 levels.
(e) Let prices grow faster than 3% per year.
We are interested in your opinion. We would like to assure you that there is no right or wrong answer to this question.
17b) Compared to the beginning of 2020, prices in the economy have increased by about 40% on average. During the same period, average wages increased by about 35%. Which statement most closely matches your preference for the coming years?
(a) Keep prices at about today's level (zero inflation).
(b) Let prices grow at a rate of about 1-3% per year (CNB target).
(c) Reduce prices somewhat (not necessarily to pre-2020 levels).
(d) Reduce prices to pre-2020 levels.
(e) Let prices grow faster than 3% per year.
We are interested in your opinion. We would like to assure you that there is no right or wrong answer to this question.
17c) Compared to the beginning of 2020, prices in the economy have increased by about 40% on average, while wages have increased by about 35%, so overall purchasing power has decreased. Which statement most closely matches your preference for the coming years?
(a) Keep prices at about today's level (zero inflation).
(b) Let prices grow at a rate of about 1-3% per year (CNB target).
(c) Reduce prices somewhat (not necessarily to pre-2020 levels).
(d) Reduce prices to pre-2020 levels.
(e) Let prices grow faster than 3% per year.
We are interested in your opinion. We would like to assure you that there is no right or wrong answer to this question.
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Subsequent rounds 1-3
Information treatment provided to randomly selected half of treated units 1-5 as a booster of previous information treatments:
"Thank you for your attention to last month's inflation expectations survey.
Before completing the next round, we would like to inform you that inflation reached 2.3% in September (from 2.5% in August). This is within the tolerance band of the central bank's inflation target.
In the next part of the questionnaire, we will ask you to think about the future development of inflation. By inflation, we mean the increase in prices over the past 12 months expressed as a percentage."
(The inflation figure will be updated for the subsequent waves)
Other half of treatment groups 1-5 + controll will not receive additional information treatment.
These repeated treatments follow the logic of Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trials.