Fertility Intentions, Maternity Allowance Policy, and the Role of Information Disclosure in Childbearing Decisions

The preliminary survey does not involve any intervention; it collects background data via questionnaires.

The main trial involves a sequence of activities designed to examine how couples process information and make joint decisions. All participating couples first complete individual background surveys. They then engage with informational materials about the relevant policy, with the content and delivery varying by experimental condition to study different scenarios of information distribution. Following this, couples participate in a discussion aimed at reaching a mutual decision. Finally, each spouse completes a concluding individual survey.

To ensure ethical standards and participant welfare, all couples receive comprehensive and accurate policy information upon completing the study.

The preliminary survey does not involve any intervention; it collects background data via questionnaires.

The main trial consists of five sequential stages. First, each spouse independently completes a baseline survey of demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. Second, all couples jointly receive standardized policy information: the control group and Treatment Group 1 review a core policy module, while Treatment Group 2 additionally receives a supplementary module with numerical subsidy examples, intended to narrow the dispersion of expected subsidy amounts. Third, in the control group, both spouses read the full policy; in Treatment Groups 1 and 2, only the wife receives the full policy module and may choose what, if anything, to disclose to her husband; the husband reads neutral sports news as a placebo. Fourth, couples then jointly discuss and must reach a consensus on near‑term childbearing intentions. Finally, each spouse individually completes a post‑experiment survey covering household characteristics and expectations. Wives in the treatment groups are also asked about the extent and manner of information shared.

After the experiment, all households receive a full policy information package to ensure an accurate understanding and prevent potential misunderstandings or household tensions.

2026-02-02

2026-06-02

In the preliminary survey, core outcomes include each spouse’s individual fertility intention, their knowledge of the relevant policy’s specific provisions, and their stated willingness to share policy-related information within the household.

In the main trial, the primary outcome is the couple’s jointly stated decision—expressed as a binary choice or a probabilistic assessment—regarding whether to attempt to have a child in the near term, following their collaborative discussion.

The heterogeneity analysis examines whether the treatment effects vary with several moderating variables: the degree of spousal preference alignment, the degree of policy uncertainty, and the level of household income.

This study employs a two-phase design, comprising a preliminary survey and a randomized controlled trial, both administered via the certified online platform Credamo.

The preliminary survey targets individuals of childbearing age in Shanghai to assess baseline fertility intentions and policy awareness among those eligible for the relevant policy.

The main trial focuses on married or cohabiting couples of childbearing age in Shanghai. Each eligible couple is randomized into one of three study arms: Control, Treatment 1, or Treatment 2. These different conditions vary in how policy information is presented and shared between spouses. The core objective is to examine how the distribution of information within a couple influences their joint decision-making process regarding fertility. All participants engage in a sequence of survey modules and a structured joint discussion task. Following the experiment, every participating couple receives a complete and accurate information package about the relevant policy to ensure full understanding. The subsequent analysis explores how treatment effects vary with factors such as spousal preference alignment, policy uncertainty, and household income.

This study employs a two-phase design, comprising a preliminary survey and a randomized controlled trial, both administered via the certified online platform Credamo.

The preliminary survey targets individuals of childbearing age in Shanghai to assess baseline fertility intentions and policy awareness among those eligible for the relevant policy.

The main trial focuses on married or cohabiting couples of childbearing age in Shanghai. Each eligible couple is randomized into one of three study arms: Control, Treatment 1, or Treatment 2. The control arm establishes a symmetric-information baseline where both spouses receive complete policy details. Treatment 1 creates a condition of high information asymmetry, while Treatment 2 introduces a condition of moderately high information asymmetry, designed to yield a narrower distribution of expected policy benefits.

The experimental procedure consists of five sequential stages. First, each spouse independently completes a baseline survey covering demographic, economic, and health characteristics. Second, couples jointly review policy information. The control arm and Treatment 1 review a core policy module, while Treatment 2 also reviews a supplementary module with numerical examples of subsidy calculations. Third, during an individual disclosure stage, information access diverges. In the control arm, both spouses read the full policy. In the two treatment arms, only the wife receives the full policy details and is permitted to disclose information at her discretion; husbands read neutral sports news as a placebo. Fourth, couples engage in a joint discussion to reach a consensus on near-term childbearing intentions. Finally, each spouse completes a post-experiment survey covering household economics and expectations, with wives in the treatment arms additionally reporting their information-sharing behavior.

Upon completion, all participating couples receive a comprehensive policy information package to ensure an accurate understanding and mitigate potential household tensions.

The subsequent analysis includes an examination of heterogeneity based on spousal preference alignment, policy uncertainty, and household income.

The study is administered via Credamo, a certified online survey platform. Randomization is implemented automatically through the platform's built-in procedure, which uses computer-generated random numbers following eligibility verification.

Randomization in the preliminary survey is conducted at the individual level. In the main trial, the unit of randomization is the couple.

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The study aims to enroll approximately 400 participants (200 male and 200 female) in the preliminary survey. For the main randomized controlled trial, the target sample size is approximately 2,500 couples, resulting in approximately 5,000 individual observations.

In the preliminary survey, there are no treatment arms. For the main trial, couples are randomized into three groups with an allocation ratio of 1 (Control) : 2 (Treatment 1) : 2 (Treatment 2). This yields a target sample of 500 couples in the control group, and 1,000 couples in each of the two treatment groups.