Public debt concerns, inflation, and private consumption. Do the expectations about debt resolution matter?

Last registered on February 19, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Public debt concerns, inflation, and private consumption. Do the expectations about debt resolution matter?
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0017910
Initial registration date
February 17, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
February 19, 2026, 7:38 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Czechia
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Jaromír Baxa
Affiliation
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Jiří Schwarz
PI Affiliation
Anglo-American University
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PI Name
Nino Buliskeria
PI Affiliation
Nazarbayev University
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PI Name
Ali Elminejad
PI Affiliation
Nazarbayev University
Contact Investigator

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2026-02-18
End date
2026-05-31
Keywords
Finance & Microfinance
Additional Keywords
inflation expectations, public debt, fiscal policy
JEL code(s)
E31, E21, E52, E58, H63, H68
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This randomized controlled trial studies how households interpret rising public debt and how these interpretations affect inflation expectations and consumption behavior. The study measures two primary outcomes: (1) inflation expectations and related macroeconomic beliefs, and (2) intertemporal consumption responses elicited through a structured hypothetical windfall allocation task that allows estimation of marginal propensities to consume, save, and repay debt. To distinguish behavioral responses from liquidity constraints, the survey includes a short balance-sheet module classifying households into liquidity types consistent with Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (HANK) models (poor hand-to-mouth, wealthy hand-to-mouth, unconstrained).
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Baxa, Jaromír et al. 2026. "Public debt concerns, inflation, and private consumption. Do the expectations about debt resolution matter?." AEA RCT Registry. February 19. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.17910-1.0
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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Respondents in a nationally representative survey are randomly assigned to one of four groups, which differ by information they receive as a form of treatment: (i) a control group, (ii) a fiscal facts group providing information on current deficits and debt, (iii) a “future taxes” group framing debt sustainability through higher future taxation (Ricardian channel), and (iv) a “monetization” group framing debt sustainability through money creation and inflation (fiscal dominance channel). This intervention provides exogenous variation in people's beliefs about the future fiscal stance and - in the case of (iv) - future inflation.
Intervention Start Date
2026-02-18
Intervention End Date
2026-02-25

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
(1) inflation expectations and related macroeconomic beliefs,
(2) intertemporal consumption responses elicited through a structured hypothetical windfall allocation task that allows estimation of marginal propensities to consume, save, and repay debt;
(3) self-reported consumption and savings plans
(4) expectations about resolution of public debt in the future
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The study is a randomized online survey experiment conducted on a nationally sampled adult population. After completing baseline demographic and financial questions, respondents are randomly assigned to one of four groups which receive alternative treatments or stay as a control group without any treatment.
The survey also includes a short balance-sheet module measuring liquid assets, illiquid assets, and unsecured debt. This enables classification of households by liquidity status and analysis of heterogeneous treatment effects.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization occurs at the individual level and is implemented automatically by the survey software.
Randomization Unit
Individual.
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
No clusters.
Sample size: planned number of observations
3000 respondents
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
750 respondents per arm.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan