The Cost of Commuting: Non-Linearity in the Willingness to Avoid Commute

Last registered on February 24, 2026

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
The Cost of Commuting: Non-Linearity in the Willingness to Avoid Commute
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0017924
Initial registration date
February 19, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
February 24, 2026, 6:22 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Affiliation
University of Potsdam

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
Institute for Employment Research (IAB)

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2026-02-21
End date
2027-10-31
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Commuting time shapes workers’ daily lives and job opportunities for job seekers. Recent policy debates in the context of the German welfare system included the proposal to tighten requirements regarding commuting time subject to the threat of benefit reductions. While commuting imposes time costs, monetary costs, and stress, these burdens are unevenly distributed across social groups, particularly by gender, parenthood, and income. Existing evidence suggests that women are less willing than men to accept long commutes, which may contribute to persistent gender wage differences; however, prior work has not examined whether the disutility of commuting increases non-linearly with commute time.
This project estimates the willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid additional commuting time and tests whether WTP exhibits convexity (i.e., over-proportional increases in disutility at higher baseline commute durations). To this end, we implement a vignette-based stated-choice survey experiment within the IAB-OPAL survey (https://www.iab-opal.de), the IAB’s high-frequency online panel “Arbeiten und Leben in Deutschland”. IAB-OPAL repeatedly surveys the German working-age population several times per year and can field topical modules quickly. Using IAB-OPAL, we target two groups: unemployed job seekers, mainly those who receive welfare benefits, and employed individuals. Respondents repeatedly choose between hypothetical job offers that trade off net income and commuting time (and the additional job attributes contract type and mobility support). We estimate preference parameters using conditional logit models, derive WTP for reduced commuting, and compare alternative model specifications to detect non-linearities.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Wagner, Sophie and Markus Wolf. 2026. "The Cost of Commuting: Non-Linearity in the Willingness to Avoid Commute." AEA RCT Registry. February 24. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.17924-1.0
Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
A survey experiment (choice experiment) as detailed below.

Intervention Start Date
2026-02-21
Intervention End Date
2026-03-07

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Our primary outcome is the binary choice regarding which of two hypothetical job offers the respondent would prefer.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
The two hypothetical job offers in each choice are characterized by four different features that describe the net income, the commuting time, the type of contract and commuting subsidy from the employer.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Effect-heterogeneity concerning respondents’ characteristics (employment status, employment and unemployment history, age, gender, and expectations and beliefs about reemployment chances, commuting experiences, experience with public employment services, and area of residence).
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
Within the IAB-OPAL survey, we implement a module with an experimental design. The IAB-OPAL survey has ample information on the individuals’ socio-demographic- and employment-background, job search outcomes, subjective beliefs and commuting experience. To this established survey, we add a survey experiment. The respondents are a representative sample of the German working age population, both unemployed and employed.

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Respondents in Germany, both unemployed job seekers and employed individuals, are randomly assigned repeated vignettes presenting two hypothetical job offers that differ in commuting time, net pay, and other job attributes. In each task, they choose which offer they would accept, allowing us to estimate their willingness to pay to reduce commuting time and test whether commute aversion increases non-linearly with longer commute durations.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization is carried out by a computer-based randomization.
Randomization Unit
individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
-
Sample size: planned number of observations
approx. 8,000 resulting in about 32,000 choices
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
-
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
-
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number