Intervention (Hidden)
Respondents are presented with a specific post-war scenario to frame their decision: “Imagine the fighting and aerial attacks in Ukraine have stopped, and there are Western peacekeepers on the ground. However, Ukraine was not able to regain control over occupied territories. Negotiations to join the EU are progressing. The Ukrainian economy is recovering. The Ukrainian government and its international partners are planning to implement one of the following policy packages to reconstruct Ukraine, support Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), and incentivize the return of refugees. Which of the two policy packages would you prefer to be implemented?”
• Following the notation of Hainmueller et al. (2014), a conjoint experiment consists of N respondents, K tasks (or rounds), with J alternatives, with L attributes which have Dl components (or levels) each. J=2 in a paired conjoint. We draw K = 4 sets of profile pairs for each respondent. We choose L = 6 dimensions based on their policy relevance while keeping the number of dimensions tractable for respondents as suggested by Bansak et al. (2021).
In designing the attributes of the conjoint tasks, we aimed to include dimensions that are (1) most relevant to the decision to return, (2) actionable by the Ukrainian government and international partners, and (3) realistic within the proposed post-war context. The selected attributes are from three broad categories, with monetary values provided in Hryvnias (1 Euro corresponded to approximately 50 to 51 Hryvnias between January and March 2026).
• Economic Incentives:
(1) Minimum wage ∈ {Remains at the level of 8700 Hryvnias per month, Increased to 10 000 Hryvnias per month, Increased to 12 000 Hryvnias per month, Increased to 14 000 Hryvnias per month, Increased to 16 000 Hryvnias per month}
(2) One-time payment (Cash Transfer) ∈ {Random value drawn from a range (5000 Hryvnias , 250 000 Hryvnias ) and rounded to the nearest 10 000 Hryvnias. If taking it, recipients lose access to social assistance in other European countries for one year.}
• Social Support:
(3) Housing (applies to those who have no home to return to) ∈ {There are no additional housing benefits for returnees to Ukraine, Free social dormitories for three months, Free social dormitories for one year, Free separate social apartments for one year}
(4) Healthcare ∈ {Returnees receive standard Ukrainian health coverage, Health and medication costs of returnees are fully covered by the previous host country for 6 months after return, Health and medication costs of returnees in Ukraine are fully covered by the previous host country for one year after return}
• Child-related Policies:
(5) Children’s reintegration ∈ {The child is guaranteed a place in the school according to their knowledge level, The child is guaranteed a place in the school according to their age (without state-funded reintegration programs), The child is guaranteed a place in the school according to their age (with state-funded reintegration programs)}
(6) Childcare ∈ {There are no changes in public and private childcare, There is a subsidy which covers 20% of costs in private childcare facilities, There is a subsidy which covers 50% of costs in private childcare facilities, There is a subsidy which covers 80% of costs in private childcare facilities, A spot for a child is guaranteed in public childcare facilities}