Creating Moves to Opportunity: Long-term follow up

Last registered on June 22, 2026
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Creating Moves to Opportunity: Long-term follow up
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0018949
Initial registration date
June 16, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
June 22, 2026, 6:58 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Cynthia Miller
Affiliation
MDRC
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Nandita Verma
PI Affiliation
MDRC
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Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2018-04-01
End date
2028-09-30
Keywords
Education, Labor, Welfare
Additional Keywords
Housing mobility, housing choice voucher program, housing stability, children’s school performance, randomized control trial (RCT)
JEL code(s)
I2, I3, J
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial is based on or builds upon one or more prior RCTs.
Abstract
The Creating Moves to Opportunity (CMTO) was a housing mobility program offered to families newly issued housing vouchers in the Seattle and King County, Washington region. An experimental evaluation of the program showed that it led to sizable effects on moves to high opportunity areas, or areas that offer the best prospects for children’s upward mobility. The program also led to large effects on residence in high opportunity areas after three years. This study examines the program’s effects for up to seven years after study start on housing outcomes, parents’ employment and earnings, and children’s school performance. Impacts will be estimated using school records data and UI wage records from Washington State, public housing agency records, records from the Homeless Management Information System, and records from the King County evictions database (funding permitting).
External Link(s)
Findings from original CMTO evaluation

Registration Citation

Citation
Miller, Cynthia and Nandita Verma. 2026. "Creating Moves to Opportunity: Long-term follow up." AEA RCT Registry. June 22. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.18949-1.0
Sponsors & Partners

Sponsors

Partner

Name
Opportunity Insights
Type
none
URL
https://opportunityinsights.org/
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
CMTO provided a tailored and family-centered set of services that sought to address family barriers to leasing up in high opportunity areas (HOAs). Services included:
• Increasing the family knowledge of HOAs;
• Training families to conduct effective housing searches;
• Coaching families on the process of applying for and leasing rental housing;
• Covering the costs of securing housing; and,
• Engaging landlords and expediting HCV lease-up processes.
The program operated between 2018 and 2020 and targeted families receiving subsidies from the federal Housing Choice Voucher (HCV) program.
Intervention Start Date
2018-04-01
Intervention End Date
2020-12-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The confirmatory outcome, neighborhood persistence, is defined as the percentage of families residing in HOAs in the final follow-up year. The confirmatory outcomes for children’s school progress include: average attendance rate; on-grade status for age; and scores on state standardized math and English Language Arts tests.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
For children, proficient or higher score on standardized tests, attendance rates, and on-grade for age in each observed follow-up year; attendance rate of 90% or higher (the threshold for chronic absenteeism) in each year; and high school graduation rate and college enrollment (among older students). School “quality” will also be assessed using report cards created by Washington State. Other school characteristics, including size, racial and ethnic composition, percent free lunch, percent proficient on standardized test, and teacher retention (if available). At the family level: housing stability (e.g., percent still receiving housing assistance after six and seven years, incidence of eviction filings and evictions, and parents’ employment and earnings (e.g., percent ever employed, number of quarters employed, and average earnings) for every follow-up year and over the entire follow-up period.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Randomized controlled trial. Families screened for admission to the voucher programs at King County Housing Authority and Seattle Housing Authority were randomly assigned to receive the offer of CMTO services before their vouchers were issued.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization conducted via computer.
Randomization Unit
Household
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
712 families
Sample size: planned number of observations
712 families, approximately 1,700 children
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
approximately 423 families assigned to treatment group; 289 families to the control group. 9
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
MDES=.177 for continued residence in an HOA; MDES=.146 for students' attendance rate and on-grade for age; MDES=.168 for test scores
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
MDRC
IRB Approval Date
2026-02-07
IRB Approval Number
N/A
Analysis Plan

Analysis Plan Documents

Creating Moves to Opportunity: Longer-term follow-up analysis plan

MD5: 6b27163cc3497bff58d67fb7f58d1293

SHA1: fca20b10cb7fa8e5a6a7334d31ad4a1fa667e153

Uploaded At: June 16, 2026