Household Beliefs about Fiscal Dominance

Last registered on August 27, 2026
View Trial History

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Household Beliefs about Fiscal Dominance
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0019373
Initial registration date
August 19, 2026

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
August 27, 2026, 11:44 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Germany
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Tobias Schmidt
Affiliation
Deutsche Bundesbank
Contact Primary Investigator

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Philippe Andrade
PI Affiliation
Federal Reserve Bank of Bosto
PI Name
Erwan Gautier
PI Affiliation
Banque de France and Université Paris-Dauphine
PI Name
Eric Mengus
PI Affiliation
HEC Paris and CEPR
PI Name
Emanuel Moench
PI Affiliation
Frankfurt School of Finance and Management and CEPR

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2021-11-11
End date
2021-12-01
Keywords
Finance & Microfinance, Other
Additional Keywords
Inflation expectations, fiscal and monetary policy, heterogeneous beliefs
JEL code(s)
E31, E52, H60, D84
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial is based on or builds upon one or more prior RCTs.
Abstract
Using a novel survey design, we provide direct micro-level evidence on whether households associate public debt with inflation in a manner consistent with models of fiscal dominance. To this end we included a survey module in the November 2021 wave of the Bundesbank's Online Panel Households (BOP-HH).

Specifically, we set up a randomized control trial (RCT) with the objective of creating exogenous variations in the perception of debt-to-GDP and inflation. We divided the sample into six randomly selected groups of equal size, with five groups receiving different information treatments, and a control group, receiving no treatment. The first group received a fiscal information treatment, pertaining to information about the current and projected debt level and the debt-to-GDP-ratio in their own country, Germany. The second and third groups received the same type of fiscal information, but for two foreign members of the euro-area, France, and Italy, respectively. The fourth and fifth groups received information related to the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy. More specifically, the fourth group received information about the ECB’s purchases of sovereign debt, and the fifth group received a statement from the former Bundesbank President Weidmann asserting that the ECB has a price-stability mandate and should not help governments.

We assess the effects of treatments on individuals’ expectations of future public debt and future inflation and ask several post-treatment questions:
1) Individuals are surveyed about their perception of the expected evolution of the euro-area debt-to-GDP ratio
2) We elicit the main reason underlying individuals’ views on future change in euro-area debt-to-GDP
3) We survey individuals about their average inflation expectations over the next five years or the next 10 years
4) We ask individuals about their qualitative assessment of the likelihood of a sovereign default within the euro-area within the next 5 years
5) We ask individuals about their perceptions of whether the central bank will keep interest rates low to help the government fund its debt

External Link(s)
Questionnaire of the BOP-HH wave, which includes our module (P2302A-P2305)

Registration Citation

Citation
Moench, Emanuel et al. 2026. "Household Beliefs about Fiscal Dominance." AEA RCT Registry. August 27. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.19373-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Information treatments in an online survey of individuals from Germany related to government debt of euro-area countries
Intervention (Hidden)
We set up a randomized control trial (RCT) with infromation treatments. We divided the sample into six randomly selected groups of equal size, with five groups receiving different information treatments, and a control group, receiving no treatment.

The first group received a fiscal information treatment, pertaining to information about the current and projected debt level and the debt-to-GDP-ratio in their own country, Germany. The second and third groups received the same type of fiscal information, but for two foreign members of the euro-area, France, and Italy, respectively. The fourth and fifth groups received information related to the interaction between monetary and fiscal policy. More specifically, the fourth group received information about the ECB’s purchases of sovereign debt, and the fifth group received a statement from the former Bundesbank President Weidmann asserting that the ECB has a price-stability mandate and should not help governments.

We assess the effects of treatments on individuals’ expectations of future public debt and future inflation and ask several post-treatment questions:
1) Individuals are surveyed about their perception of the expected evolution of the euro-area debt-to-GDP ratio
2) We elicit the main reason underlying individuals’ views on future change in euro-area debt-to-GDP
3) We survey individuals about their average inflation expectations over the next five years or the next 10 years
4) We ask individuals about their qualitative assessment of the likelihood of a sovereign default within the euro-area within the next 5 years
5) We ask individuals about their perceptions of whether the central bank will keep interest rates low to help the government fund its debt
Intervention Start Date
2021-11-11
Intervention End Date
2021-12-01

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Individuals'
a) perception of the evolution of the euro-area debt-to-GDP ratio
b) reasons underlying their views on future change in euro-area debt-to-GDP
c) inflation expectations over the next five years or the next 10 years
d) assessment of the likelihood of a sovereign default within the euro-area within the next 5 years
e) perceptions of whether the central bank will keep interest rates low to help the government fund its debt

Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Randomized Control Trial with five information treatments and a control group
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Automatic randomization is done by the software the programmed version of the questionnaire runs on
Randomization Unit
individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
5 groups with treatments and 1 control group
Sample size: planned number of observations
6 000 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
six equally sized groups, ie. 1 000 individuals per group
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
Yes
Intervention Completion Date
December 01, 2021, 12:00 AM +00:00
Data Collection Complete
Yes
Data Collection Completion Date
December 01, 2021, 12:00 AM +00:00
Final Sample Size: Number of Clusters (Unit of Randomization)
6023 individuals
Was attrition correlated with treatment status?
Final Sample Size: Total Number of Observations
6023 individuals
Final Sample Size (or Number of Clusters) by Treatment Arms
1000 individuals per treatment arm
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

There is information in this trial unavailable to the public. Use the button below to request access.

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Program Files

Program Files
No
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials