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Changing Beliefs, Changing Bribes

Last registered on April 24, 2014

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Changing Beliefs, Changing Bribes
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0000053
First published
April 24, 2014, 7:12 PM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
University of Southern California

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
Yale University
PI Affiliation
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
PI Affiliation
Yale University
PI Affiliation
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
PI Affiliation
Massachusetts Institute of Technology
PI Affiliation
Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2012-06-12
End date
2015-08-31
Secondary IDs
Abstract
This project investigates the effect of changing legal penalties, and citizens' beliefs about these penalties, on corruption. We focus on a single, clear case: the law against riding a motorcycle without a helmet in India, a setting where many citizens pay bribes instead of a formal ticket, and are unsure of the true legal fine. We randomly inform motorcyclists of the true legal penalty using private information campaigns. The intervention spans a major policy change, during which the fine for riding without a helmet will increase by 500%, allowing us to capture time series variation in how bribes respond to legal changes. Our results, both on the process of bribery as well as on the degree of law-breaking and police enforcement seek to provide new insights into the underlying mechanism of corruption, as well as direct policy implications for reducing graft.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Banerjee, Abhijit et al. 2014. "Changing Beliefs, Changing Bribes." AEA RCT Registry. April 24. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.53-1.0
Former Citation
Banerjee, Abhijit et al. 2014. "Changing Beliefs, Changing Bribes." AEA RCT Registry. April 24. https://www.socialscienceregistry.org/trials/53/history/1580
Sponsors & Partners

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Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Indian drivers generally do not know the true value of fines for traffic infringements. If they overestimate what the fine would be, which previous data had indicated was the case, then they may elect to pay bribes, and even bribe amounts larger than legal fine. In response, our intervention informs drivers of the true fine amounts for one particular, observable offense: driving a motorcycle without a helmet.

To do this, we call all respondents from our baseline survey to ask if they would like to take our followup survey, and while doing this, inform half about the true fine value for riding a motorcycle without a helmet. This was done twice: once about a month after they completed the survey, and once again three months after that. We also sent a text message to both control and treatment drivers at those times, where both were reminded of the dangers of riding without a helmet, while treatment drivers were also told the true fine value for doing so.

After the information campaign, and approximately 9 months after the baseline survey, phone respondents were called for an endline survey and incentivized by an offer of mobile airtime in exchange for answering questions. This panel approach is necessary for us to examine how the effect of information interacts with drivers' priors on fine amounts. The survey also provides insight into the response of the police to greater driver knowledge of fine amounts. We can, for example, observe whether public information on the legal fine influences police to shift their enforcement to other traffic violations on which citizens have no additional information.
Intervention (Hidden)
Intervention Start Date
2012-09-01
Intervention End Date
2014-05-01

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The amount that drivers report paying to the police for helmet violations and whether fine amounts were paid as an official traffic ticket or a bribe
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Other outcomes of interest include -
* Drivers' knowledge of fine amounts for riding without a helmet
* Drivers' knowledge of fine amounts for other traffic offenses, to see if they updated their subjective beliefs in response to being informed about the helmet fine
* Overall fraction of drivers who elect to ride without a helmet (checking whether the campaign affected selection into being pulled over)
* Changes observed in how both police and drivers negotiate (length of negotiations, response to police demands,
* Probability of paying more than the true fine amount for an offense)
* Hypothetical Driver willingness to pay bribes

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
The first phase of the project randomizes the provision of information at the individual level, with stratification based on geographic location. Our baseline survey was conducted in 41 towns and 4 cities in Gujarat, 27 towns and 7 cities in Haryana, and 42 towns and 6 cities in Rajasthan. We randomly selected 1/3 of drivers in each town or city to be informed about the true fine for riding a motorcycle without a helmet. These drivers were informed of the fine via two individual phone calls and text messages, alongside a message of driving safely on a motorcycle. The control drivers were also called and sent text messages, but with only the generic message of driving safely on a motorcycle.

The second phase of the study will be conducted after the Indian Parliament passes pending legislation to increase fine amounts for traffic offenses (Motor Vehicles Act amendment). The design for this component of the study is currently being finalized, and a separate preanalysis plan will be submitted for that component of the project. It will closely resemble the design in the first phase.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomization in office using Stata
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
N/A
Sample size: planned number of observations
20,000 drivers
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
6,666 treatment drivers, 13,333 control drivers
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
.27 SD for the measure of amount paid to the police for the violation, at 80% power, with an estimated 420 stops for helmet violations and .448 correlation between baseline and followup
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Human Subjects Committee - Yale University
IRB Approval Date
2013-10-04
IRB Approval Number
1205010255
IRB Name
MIT Committee On the Use of Humans as Experimental Subjects (COUHES)
IRB Approval Date
2013-10-03
IRB Approval Number
1206005107
IRB Name
Institute for Financial and Management Research
IRB Approval Date
2013-01-29
IRB Approval Number
IRB00007107
Analysis Plan

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Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials