Central Bank Communication and House Price Expectations

Last registered on February 18, 2023


Trial Information

General Information

Central Bank Communication and House Price Expectations
Initial registration date
September 04, 2022

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
September 08, 2022, 11:29 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
February 18, 2023, 1:16 PM EST

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.



Primary Investigator


Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
PI Affiliation

Additional Trial Information

Start date
End date
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
This study analyses how US consumers form the expectation of house prices and respond to verbal and non-verbal communication of the central bank (Fed). Three surveys are implemented.

The first survey is an RCT. Prior to receiving the information treatment, all respondents provide their forecasts of national house price changes over the next 12 months, their inflation perceptions and expectations, their expectations and perceptions of the federal funds rate, and their response to a hypothetical investment question. The first treatment group is only told the level of the current federal funds rate. The second treatment group receives the same information, and also information about the projected federal funds rate over the next three years and in the longer run, from the Summary of Economic Projections. The third treatment group receives the same information as the second group, as well as a brief explanation of the mortgage rate channel of monetary policy. Respondents then provide their posteriors for the expectations of the variables of interest. We follow up with the respondents to our first survey about nine months later.

The second survey includes hypothetical vignettes in which we ask respondents to predict future house prices under different scenarios for future monetary policy. In the baseline scenario, participants are asked to imagine that the FOMC announces that it will keep the federal funds rate unchanged in the next meeting. In the shock scenario, respondents imagine that the FOMC unexpectedly raises the federal funds rate by 1 percentage point (p.p.). We use both open-ended and multiple choice questions to elicit the mechanisms that are on respondents’ minds when coming up with the prediction in the shock scenario, and we also ask about their personal experiences with different mechanisms.

Our third survey is an RCT which studies the response of consumer house price ex- pectations to part of Chair Powell’s speech at a recent press conference. The treatments are designed to allow us to distinguish between the effects of his wording, tone of voice, and visual appearance or body language. Prior to receiving the information treatment, all respondents provide their forecasts of house price changes over the next 12 months, expec- tations of 1-year ahead inflation, perceptions of current and recent changes in the policy interest rate, and 1-year ahead expectations of the policy interest rate. Respondents are randomly assigned to one of three treatment groups or the control group. The first treat- ment group receives a part of the transcript of the speech by Chair Powell which contains the announcement of the Fed’s decision on an interest rate hike and comments on recent economic conditions in the US. The second treatment group listens to an audio recording of the same speech. The third treatment group views and listens to a video recording of the same speech. Three questions test respondents’ understanding of the contents of the speech. Respondents then provide their posterior expectations and perceptions of the variables of interest. They also evaluate whether the wording, tone of voice, and body language of the Fed Chair send a positive or negative signal about future US economy.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Binder, Carola, Pei Kuang and Li Tang. 2023. "Central Bank Communication and House Price Expectations." AEA RCT Registry. February 18. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.10024-1.1
Experimental Details


Intervention Start Date
Intervention End Date

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
House price forecasts
Primary Outcomes (explanation)

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Communication of current policy rates, interest rate hikes and explanation of the mortgage rate channel.
Experimental Design Details
Randomization Method
Randomisation by a computer
Randomization Unit
Was the treatment clustered?

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
Sample size: planned number of observations
3000 adults
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
University of Birmingham
IRB Approval Date
Details not available
IRB Approval Number
Details not available


Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Is the intervention completed?
Data Collection Complete
Data Collection Completion Date
Final Sample Size: Number of Clusters (Unit of Randomization)
First wave: 4 groups
Third wave: 4 groups
Was attrition correlated with treatment status?
Final Sample Size: Total Number of Observations
First wave: around 3000 consumers
Second wave: around 700 consumers
Third wave: around 2000 consumers.
Final Sample Size (or Number of Clusters) by Treatment Arms
First wave: around 750 per group Third wave: around 500 per group
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials