International Evidence of Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations

Last registered on February 13, 2023
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
International Evidence of Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0010932
Initial registration date
February 09, 2023

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
February 13, 2023, 10:40 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

Country
Germany
Region
Country
Spain
Region
Country
France
Region
Country
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
Region
Country
Italy
Region
Country
United States of America
Region

Primary Investigator

Name
Mathieu Pedemonte
Affiliation
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Ina Hajdini
PI Affiliation
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Ed Knotek
PI Affiliation
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Contact Investigator
PI Name
John Leer
PI Affiliation
Morning Consult
Contact Investigator
PI Name
Rob Rich
PI Affiliation
Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
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PI Name
Raphael Schoenle
PI Affiliation
Brandeis University
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Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2023-02-10
End date
2023-07-31
Keywords
Behavior
Additional Keywords
Inflation, wage-price spiral, expectations
JEL code(s)
E31, E24, E71, C83
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Building on Hajdini et al (2022), we study how inflation expectations and income growth expectations are related using exogenous variation in inflation expectations. We exploit evidence for a panel of countries to understand how institutional and historical context affect the degree of passthrough from inflation expectations to income growth expectations.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Hajdini, Ina et al. 2023. "International Evidence of Passthrough from Inflation Expectations to Income Growth Expectations." AEA RCT Registry. February 13. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.10932-1.0
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
We will ask respondent inflation and income growth expectations, then give information treatments about pass inflation tu a subgroup of respondents to ask again in a slightly different way inflation expectations and income growth expectations. In addition, we will explore labor market actions after the treatment.
Intervention Start Date
2023-02-10
Intervention End Date
2023-03-10

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Inflation expectations, income growth expectations, labor market actions
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
labor market actions are Apply for a job(s) that pays more, Apply for a second job, Work longer hours, Ask for a raise

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
We survey respondents from the US, the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain
Experimental Design Details
U.S.
• Estimated sample size: 1,100
• Treatments: 1
• Estimated randomization sample: 1,100 control + 1,100 treatment

U.K., Germany, France, Italy and Spain
• Estimated sample size per country: 1,000
• Treatments per country: 1
• Estimated randomization sample per country: 500 control + 500 treatment
Randomization Method
Randomization done by computer
Randomization Unit
individual
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
1000 individuals by country
Sample size: planned number of observations
6200
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
1100 treated and 1100 control in the US, 500 treated and 500 controls in the other countries.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
IRB Approval Date
IRB Approval Number
Analysis Plan

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials