Central Bank Communication and House Price Expectations

Last registered on January 06, 2025

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Central Bank Communication and House Price Expectations
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0015119
Initial registration date
January 05, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
January 06, 2025, 12:46 PM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Locations

There is information in this trial unavailable to the public. Use the button below to request access.

Request Information

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
University of Reading

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
University of Birmingham
PI Affiliation
University of Texas at Austin

Additional Trial Information

Status
In development
Start date
2025-01-07
End date
2025-02-28
Secondary IDs
ERN_3665-Jan2025
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
We examine the effects of the Federal Reserve's communication of monetary policy on beliefs about future housing prices. On one hand, we analyze the impact of informational treatments regarding potential reductions in the federal funds rate and the mechanisms that link these changes to the housing market. On the other hand, we investigate how different communication formats (transcript, audio, and video) influence expectations about housing prices.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Binder, Carola, Pei Kuang and Li Tang. 2025. "Central Bank Communication and House Price Expectations." AEA RCT Registry. January 06. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.15119-1.0
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Participants will be randomly assigned to the control group or one of 8 treatment groups. Each of the treatments provides some information about the future federal funds rate reduction.
Intervention Start Date
2025-01-07
Intervention End Date
2025-01-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
Our main variables of interest are the effects of information shocks and perceived signals from different communication formats on U.S. households' expectations about future housing prices.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
House price expectations and perceived signals of different communication formats will be directly elicited by respondents. Information shocks will be created using the difference between the treatment information and respondents' prior belief about federal funds rate.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Participants will be randomly placed either in the control group or one of eight treatment groups, with each treatment offering specific information about potential future reductions in the federal funds rate.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization done digitally by Qualtrics
Randomization Unit
Randomization is done at the individual level
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
7200 adults individuals from the US
Sample size: planned number of observations
7200 adults individuals from the US
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
800 control, 800 treatment 1, 800 treatment 2, 800 treatment 3, 800 treatment 4, 800 treatment 5, 800 treatment 6, 800 treatment 7, 800 treatment 8.
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
University of Birmingham Ethical Review Committee
IRB Approval Date
2025-01-02
IRB Approval Number
ERN_3665-Jan2025