Randomized Evaluation of Delivering Resilient Enterprises and Market Systems (DREAMS) program in Uganda

Last registered on March 07, 2025
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Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
Randomized Evaluation of Delivering Resilient Enterprises and Market Systems (DREAMS) program in Uganda
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0015497
Initial registration date
March 05, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
March 07, 2025, 8:21 AM EST

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
March 07, 2025, 8:50 AM EST

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

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Primary Investigator

Name
Kashif Ahmed
Affiliation
IDinsight
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Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Name
Jeffery McManus
PI Affiliation
IDinsight
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PI Name
Alison Connor
PI Affiliation
IDinsight
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PI Name
Young Mkandawire
PI Affiliation
IDinsight
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PI Name
Jacob Gulinello
PI Affiliation
IDinsight
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PI Name
Emmanuel Rukundo
PI Affiliation
Apata Insights
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Additional Trial Information

Status
On going
Start date
2022-09-01
End date
2026-08-31
Keywords
Firms & Productivity, Labor
Additional Keywords
Poverty, Refugees, Livelihoods, Resilience, Self-Reliance
JEL code(s)
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
Forced displacement has left millions of refugees worldwide in protracted situations with limited economic opportunities. The Delivering Resilient Enterprises and Market Systems (DREAMS) program integrates poverty graduation and market systems development (MSD) to enhance refugee self-reliance by providing vulnerable households with business mentorship, savings groups, and direct market linkages. This study evaluates the impact of DREAMS on economic livelihoods, social cohesion, and perceived well-being in refugee and host communities in Uganda’s West Nile region, which hosts Africa's largest refugee population. Using a household-level randomized controlled trial (RCT), we assess the program’s effects on key outcomes, including household consumption, asset accumulation, women’s economic empowerment, and business formation. Additionally, a qualitative study explores the mechanisms driving impact, variations in participant experiences, and potential spillover effects on non-participants. By integrating experimental and qualitative methods, this research provides rigorous evidence on the effectiveness of market-based interventions in displacement settings, offering insights into pathways for sustainable economic integration and resilience.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Rukundo, Emmanuel et al. 2025. "Randomized Evaluation of Delivering Resilient Enterprises and Market Systems (DREAMS) program in Uganda." AEA RCT Registry. March 07. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.15497-1.1
Sponsors & Partners
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
The Delivering Resilient Enterprises and Market Systems (DREAMS) program aims to improve refugee and host community self-reliance through a combination of poverty graduation and market systems development (MSD). The intervention supports vulnerable households in Uganda’s West Nile region by providing business mentorship, financial literacy training, savings groups, and direct market linkages. The goal is to enhance economic resilience by equipping participants with the skills, resources, and connections necessary for sustainable income generation.
Intervention Start Date
2022-09-01
Intervention End Date
2024-01-01

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The primary outcomes of interest in this study include household welfare and well-being, measured through total household consumption and asset value, and women's economic empowerment, assessed through financial decision-making power, control over business activities, and autonomy in household expenditures.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Household consumption will be constructed as the sum of expenditures on food, beverages, and temptation goods over the preceding seven days, recurrent expenditures (e.g., fuel, utilities, personal hygiene, and healthcare) over the past four weeks, and infrequent expenditures (e.g., social and religious events, clothing, taxes, education) over the past year. Asset value will be measured as the sum of durable goods, home improvements, productive assets, savings, and business capital minus outstanding liabilities. Women’s economic empowerment will be assessed using indicators of decision-making autonomy, participation in business operations, and perceptions of financial control.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
The study also examines social cohesion and community/market integration, focusing on trust between refugees and host communities, perceived security, participation in local economic activities, and interactions with market actors.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
Social cohesion will be assessed through survey questions on trust between groups, perceived safety, and relationships within refugee and host communities. Market integration will be measured by household engagement with key market actors, participation in business networks, and access to financial products.

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
This study employs a randomized controlled trial (RCT) to evaluate the impact of the DREAMS program on refugee and host community households in Uganda’s West Nile region. Eligible households are randomly assigned to treatment and control groups to assess the effects of poverty graduation and market systems development (MSD) on economic self-reliance, social cohesion, and perceived well-being. Data will be collected at two points: 12 months and 24 months post-intervention.
Experimental Design Details
Not available
Randomization Method
Randomization was conducted using a computer. Households were assigned to treatment and control groups based on a stratified randomization approach, ensuring balance across refugee and host community populations.

Randomization Unit
Households were randomized at the individual household level, with stratification by refugee vs. host community status to allow for subgroup analyses.
Was the treatment clustered?
Yes

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
This study is not clustered at a higher level beyond individual households. However, treatment effects will be examined across refugee settlements (Bidi Bidi & Rhino) and host communities, and four cohorts and the villages in these cohorts.

Sample size: planned number of observations
A total of 6,520 households are included in the study.
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
Treatment Group: 3,260 households
Control Group: 3,260 households
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
Household Consumption: MDES = 0.075 SD Refugee Household Subgroup: MDES = 0.097 SD Host Community Household Subgroup: MDES = 0.110 SD Assumptions: 15% attrition, 0.05 alpha, 0.8 power
Supporting Documents and Materials
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
Mildmay Uganda Research Ethics Committee
IRB Approval Date
2023-08-02
IRB Approval Number
MUREC-2022-115
Analysis Plan

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