The Inflation Gamble

Last registered on December 04, 2025

Pre-Trial

Trial Information

General Information

Title
The Inflation Gamble
RCT ID
AEARCTR-0015879
Initial registration date
April 24, 2025

Initial registration date is when the trial was registered.

It corresponds to when the registration was submitted to the Registry to be reviewed for publication.

First published
April 30, 2025, 9:24 AM EDT

First published corresponds to when the trial was first made public on the Registry after being reviewed.

Last updated
December 04, 2025, 4:55 PM EST

Last updated is the most recent time when changes to the trial's registration were published.

Locations

Region

Primary Investigator

Affiliation
University of San Diego

Other Primary Investigator(s)

PI Affiliation
University of Miami
PI Affiliation
University of Miami
PI Affiliation
University of Colorado Denver

Additional Trial Information

Status
Completed
Start date
2025-04-28
End date
2025-07-31
Secondary IDs
Prior work
This trial does not extend or rely on any prior RCTs.
Abstract
This study aims to examine whether inflation influences investors' propensity to engage in gambling behavior, specifically through investment in lottery-type stocks. We define lottery-type stocks as those with high skewness. Our key conjecture is that high inflation will decrease individuals' risk aversion, which increases their allocation to stocks that have lottery characteristics. We aim to understand whether inflation influences investment behavior, namely through its impact on risk tolerance.
External Link(s)

Registration Citation

Citation
Bonaparte, Yosef et al. 2025. "The Inflation Gamble." AEA RCT Registry. December 04. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.15879-1.1
Experimental Details

Interventions

Intervention(s)
Intervention (Hidden)
To identify the impact of inflation on preference for lotteries, we will randomly assign participants into one of two conditions at the beginning of the experiment: (i) high inflation or (ii) neutral inflation conditions. Individuals in the high realized inflation group are provided with a narrative that indicates that inflation was high over the past month. Individuals in the neutral economic conditions group are provided with a narrative that indicates that prices are changing at normal levels.

To assess whether the inflation narratives effectively raises the perception of realized (expected) inflation among participants randomly assigned to the condition, we will ask all participants to indicate their beliefs regarding inflation over the past (next) month. Responses will be coded on a three-point scale: 1 (Decrease), 2 (Neutral), or 3 (Increase). We expect that individuals in the high realized (expected) inflation group will score higher on the scale, on average, compared with participants in the neutral condition.
Intervention Start Date
2025-04-28
Intervention End Date
2025-07-31

Primary Outcomes

Primary Outcomes (end points)
The preference for skewed investments.
Primary Outcomes (explanation)
Participants are asked to indicate their preference for 20 pairs of prospects. Participants see the dollar amounts and probabilities for two possible gain outcomes for each prospect and are asked to select which prospect they prefer. A preference for skewness will be estimated by calculating the percentage of high-skewness options selected across the total 20 prospects.

Secondary Outcomes

Secondary Outcomes (end points)
We also ask about participants about the likelihood of them changing their current investment strategy if they are faced with high inflation and whether they would change the composition of their retirement portfolio. Additionally, we ask whether inflation increases the likelihood that they will purchase a lottery ticket or invest in cryptocurrency along with their motivation for doing so.
Secondary Outcomes (explanation)
Participants answer multiple choice questions. Questions regarding likelihoods are measured on a 5-point Likert scale (1 = strongly disagree, 5 = strongly agree). The motivation questions are categorical, with the following options: 'compensating for the decreased value of your money,' 'hedging against inflation,' 'lack of attractive alternative investments,' 'influence of media/social trends,' or 'other' (where participants are asked to specify).

Experimental Design

Experimental Design
Participants will be recruited to complete an online survey via Prolific. This study employs a between-subjects design with two conditions that manipulate perceptions of inflation. Participants are randomly assigned to read one of two narratives: (1) high inflation (describing high inflation over the past month), (2) neutral inflation (describing stable price changes). After exposure to the narrative, participants complete a manipulation check to verify comprehension, followed by measures assessing their economic perceptions and decision-making.

Participants are then asked to perform an investment task given. They are presented with 20 pairs of investment options. Participants see the dollar amounts and probabilities for two possible gain outcomes for each prospect and are asked to select which prospect they prefer.

Our study includes additional questions related to risk aversion (following Eckel and Rojas 2010), financial literacy, and demographic characteristics such as age education, income, region of residence, employment status, marital status, gender identity, and race.
Experimental Design Details
Participants will be recruited to complete an online survey via Prolific. This study employs a between-subjects design with two conditions that manipulate perceptions of inflation. Participants are randomly assigned to read one of two narratives: (1) high inflation (describing high inflation over the past month), (2) neutral inflation (describing stable price changes). After exposure to the narrative, participants complete a manipulation check to verify comprehension, followed by measures assessing their economic perceptions and decision-making.

Individuals in the treatment group read the following narrative:
The following information summarizes recent national economic data from consumer price reports.

Over the past year, the cost of a typical basket of household items has increased. Prices for basic groceries have gone up: milk costs more than a year ago; eggs are more expensive, chicken costs more per pound, and bread prices have risen. Overall, the weekly cost of basic groceries for a family of four has increased from about $250 to about $300. Rent has also increased by a large amount compared to last year. Moreover, common services now cost more: electric bills are higher, internet and phone plans cost more, and healthcare expenses have increased.

Participants in the control group read the following narrative:
The following information summarizes recent national economic data from consumer price reports.

Over the past year, the cost of a typical basket of household items has increased. Prices for basic groceries have gone up: milk costs more than a year ago; eggs are more expensive, chicken costs more per pound, and bread prices have risen. Overall, the weekly cost of basic groceries for a family of four has increased from about $250 to about $300. Rent has also increased by a large amount compared to last year. Moreover, common services now cost more: electric bills are higher, internet and phone plans cost more, and healthcare expenses have increased.

Participants are then asked to perform an investment task given. They are presented with 20 pairs of investment options. Participants see the dollar amounts and probabilities for two possible gain outcomes for each prospect and are asked to select which prospect they prefer. The option pairs have the same mean and variance, but different values of skewness.

Our study includes additional questions related to risk aversion (following Eckel and Rojas 2010), financial literacy, and demographic characteristics such as age education, income, region of residence, employment status, marital status, gender identity, and race.
Randomization Method
Randomization done by Qualtrics.
Randomization Unit
Individual
Was the treatment clustered?
No

Experiment Characteristics

Sample size: planned number of clusters
1,000 individuals
Sample size: planned number of observations
1,000 individuals
Sample size (or number of clusters) by treatment arms
1,000 individuals
Minimum detectable effect size for main outcomes (accounting for sample design and clustering)
IRB

Institutional Review Boards (IRBs)

IRB Name
USD IRB
IRB Approval Date
2025-04-17
IRB Approval Number
IRB-2025-249

Post-Trial

Post Trial Information

Study Withdrawal

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Intervention

Is the intervention completed?
No
Data Collection Complete
Data Publication

Data Publication

Is public data available?
No

Program Files

Program Files
Reports, Papers & Other Materials

Relevant Paper(s)

Reports & Other Materials